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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Jul 3, 2019, 11:55 AM

5. Another leading indicator signals a recession may be on the near horizon

The Single Most Reliable Recession Indicator of the Past 50 Years Has Officially Started Blaring

If you believe the signals coming out of the bond market, it might be time to start counting down until our next recession.

As of this week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has now been inverted for a full quarter—an incredibly dull-sounding turn of events that happens to be an unusually reliable warning sign that an economic downturn is on the way. The yield curve has flipped prior to each of the last seven official recessions over the past 50 years, without a single false-alarm during that stretch. If securities could talk, in other words, they’d be screaming bloody murder about trouble ahead.

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mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2019 OP
bucolic_frolic Jul 2019 #1
Yavin4 Jul 2019 #2
progree Jul 2019 #3
mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2019 #4
LineNew Reply Another leading indicator signals a recession may be on the near horizon
Politicub Jul 2019 #5
paleotn Jul 2019 #6
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