HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Latest Breaking News (Forum) » Payroll employment increa... » Reply #8

Response to beachbum bob (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 4, 2019, 01:19 PM

8. No.

But (1) it is a bit above, and since this is the net accumulation of a lot of individual decisions by people, it's the behavior of millions of people we need to change, which may mean we need to change their circumstances;
(2) it's average, so it's very likely that there are a lot of jobs with increases above inflation, but I expect that distribution to be sharply bimodal, as it has been in the past;
(3) we're working down a pool of discouraged labor, meaning that there's still pressure to keep wages low as people who've been out of the workforce for a while return and burnish their skills.

And (4), the biggie, is that this is with the headwinds of slower growth in parts of the world and the trade war that was long ago supposed to have created a deep, deep recession. Now, a recession's a-coming, no doubt--they happen, and while after a panic the recovery tends to take longer and be slower, but eventually there's still another recession.

As for (2), it'll be interesting at some point to see the demographics by age group. Might be interesting to see thebreakdown in changes by race and sex.

Reply to this post

Back to OP Alert abuse Link to post in-thread

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Please login to view edit histories.