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mahatmakanejeeves

(56,713 posts)
Fri Jul 6, 2012, 08:33 AM Jul 2012

Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%) [View all]

Last edited Fri Jul 6, 2012, 11:10 AM - Edit history (2)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JUNE 2012


Nonfarm payroll employment continued to edge up in June (+80,000), and the
unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. Professional and business services added jobs,
and employment in other major industries changed little over the month.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons (12.7 million) was essentially unchanged
in June, and the unemployment rate held at 8.2 percent. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for blacks (14.4 percent)
edged up over the month, while the rates for adult men (7.8 percent),
adult women (7.4 percent), teenagers (23.7 percent), whites (7.4 percent),
and Hispanics (11.0 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate
for Asians was 6.3 percent in June (not seasonally adjusted), little changed
from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In June, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks
and over) was essentially unchanged at 5.4 million. These individuals
accounted for 41.9 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you deserve to see this as much as anyone. I post the numbers every month, good or bad.

This time, they're bad. The increase in employment was only 80,000. That's a lot less than expected.

Of particular importance this morning is this article from today’s Wall Street Journal.

Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks

AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Updated July 5, 2012, 7:26 p.m. ET

By SPENCER JAKAB

Here is a statistic for the politically inclined: No incumbent president has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2% since the Great Depression.

Economists expect Friday's release of June employment data will show 95,000 new jobs added. Meantime, the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 8.2%. That may be bittersweet or just plain bitter depending on one's political slant, but it is difficult to reconcile today's rate with past periods.

The headline unemployment rate has been flattered by the number of people no longer counted in the denominator used to calculate it. For example, a comparison of jobs data between the start and end of 2011 shows the ranks of the unemployed fell by 822,000 while the number of people not in the labor force grew by a larger 1.24 million. The unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points over that time to 8.5%.

In fact, the participation rate—the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work—has fallen by 2.3 percentage points over the four years through May to 63.8%, a three-decade low. Nearly 88 million people—about seven times the ranks of the officially unemployed—aren't part of the headline rate's calculation.


Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when last month’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers. We’ll start with the ADP estimate.

(Edited to fix the links, which worked the last time I did this, but not today.)

ADP, for employment in June:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/125152112
ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)

BLS, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014133487
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)

ADP, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307
May change in employment +133,000

BLS, for employment in April:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014113023
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)

ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:

There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635553
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad (posted by Laura PourMeADrink)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635507
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE (posted by xchrom)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635837
ADP & TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report (posted by marmar)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014111465
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High (posted by brooklynite)

There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.

March, BLS:

Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
March, ADP:

Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally

February, ADP:

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man.

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.
62 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
NOT a good # :-( n/t Inuca Jul 2012 #1
not good at all... n/t IamK Jul 2012 #2
Revisions of previous 2 months are mixed Inuca Jul 2012 #3
What friggin' cracks me up SoFlaJet Jul 2012 #13
120,000 non-farm payroll jobs a month need to be created just to keep pace with population growth stockholmer Jul 2012 #35
Some people remember more than 4 years ago. Igel Jul 2012 #42
Corporate hucksters sitting on 2 trillion BumRushDaShow Jul 2012 #4
Courtesy of a do nothing Congress! nt Firebrand Gary Jul 2012 #5
plus NAFTA, repeal of Glass-Stegall, & the Commodities Futures Modernization Act of 2000 all coming stockholmer Jul 2012 #11
If Clinton hadn't "gone Republican" maybe those acts would not have past, amandabeech Jul 2012 #33
Bill Clinton didn't "go republican" that's who he is. A governor of a failed small southern state Citizen Worker Jul 2012 #40
"Failed small southern state" totally sums up Arkansas and several other deep south byeya Jul 2012 #56
According to Lori Wallach the repeal of Glass-Steagall is enshrined in the WTO Agreement, which was Citizen Worker Jul 2012 #39
Obama in 2009: If I can’t fix the economy in three years, you can call me former President Obama Huey P. Long Jul 2012 #26
It's a good thing he has fixed the economy then! We are well on our way! Firebrand Gary Jul 2012 #36
the private sector is doing fine! BT021 Jul 2012 #59
Even with this rotten RePUKE House of Reps we are STILL seeing GROWTH. RBInMaine Jul 2012 #34
Early in the article, you refer to no President with over 7.2 getting re-elected karynnj Jul 2012 #6
That came from the WSJ. mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2012 #7
Actually if you google article titles alp227 Jul 2012 #15
Sorry - I was not intending to attack you - just to counter a meme that is harmful karynnj Jul 2012 #41
No problem. mahatmakanejeeves Jul 2012 #45
And it's inaccurate regarding FDR's reelection in 1936 when the rate was 16.9% 24601 Jul 2012 #51
Private payrolls miss even worse 84K on consensus of 106K, yet these numbers will not allow the Fed stockholmer Jul 2012 #8
August will change the number, as students return to school demwing Jul 2012 #16
the thing is, that is all taken into account by seasonal adjustments and the street's consensus stockholmer Jul 2012 #17
Sure, expectation will be higher demwing Jul 2012 #18
Why are all of the countries in the EU failing? Mayflower1 Jul 2012 #24
Not all (Sweden, Finland, Denmark, etc are ok- for now) but many. In a nutshell here's some reasons: stockholmer Jul 2012 #27
But bipartisan austerity seemed to be working so well MannyGoldstein Jul 2012 #9
The Repub argument is that Mayflower1 Jul 2012 #29
The data show the opposite MannyGoldstein Jul 2012 #43
How is it the ADP said 175,000 jobs were added in the private sector in June? Why so far off? flpoljunkie Jul 2012 #10
because the models that the BLS uses are extremely flawed, but at least take cheer that most of the stockholmer Jul 2012 #12
You didn't actually respond to the post pinqy Jul 2012 #20
BLS and other models, the changes, and some issues stockholmer Jul 2012 #30
Interesting Tactic pinqy Jul 2012 #38
Because ADP's number doesn't mean squat on a national level. Roland99 Jul 2012 #14
Different Statistical Universe pinqy Jul 2012 #19
PUBLIC SECTOR! Cosmocat Jul 2012 #31
Looks like republicans want to put a different spin on this one Kingofalldems Jul 2012 #21
One major cause of the unemployment crisis: ongoing cuts at the state and local level. SunSeeker Jul 2012 #22
Live in Pa - I have been posting this today Cosmocat Jul 2012 #32
TX did this last year. Igel Jul 2012 #44
Oh, boy......... Beacool Jul 2012 #23
Disability Ranks Outpace New Jobs In Obama Recovery TouchOfGray Jul 2012 #25
I noticed you defended Romney in the Bain thread Kingofalldems Jul 2012 #47
Looks like you are citing a right wing source Kingofalldems Jul 2012 #48
So you are saying that TouchOfGray Jul 2012 #49
This is the latest RW meme. Bill O'Reilly ranted about it on his show last night. SunSeeker Jul 2012 #52
Yes that the new theme of the RW Kingofalldems Jul 2012 #53
Which makes this the 28th consecutive month of job INCREASES ... SomeGuyInEagan Jul 2012 #28
It takes 125,000 new jobs/mo just to break even with rising population. Psephos Jul 2012 #46
Right. Down steeply '08 to '10, but increasing steadily for more than two years to make up half SomeGuyInEagan Jul 2012 #54
We are barely treading water, and way below the numbers in January 2009. Psephos Jul 2012 #58
I don't deny the numbers. But why go backward? SomeGuyInEagan Jul 2012 #60
Well, I can agree with that. Forward is the only way out. Psephos Jul 2012 #61
Yeah, we're on the same page. And I definitely agree with you ... SomeGuyInEagan Jul 2012 #62
Not good. emilyg Jul 2012 #37
Job growth has sucked for more than a decade now high density Jul 2012 #50
Wages and job growth..... Cronkite Jul 2012 #55
The fact that jobs can be added or lost without affecting the unemployment figures 4th law of robotics Jul 2012 #57
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