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Response to Dhantesvz (Reply #7)

Fri Jun 3, 2016, 01:48 PM

11. Yup, that's this month's report in a nutshell

[font color = blue]>>my quick take away from the information I did read is that the unemployment rate went down because of less labor participation, 0.4 percent decline over the last 2 months?<<[/font]

I wish I could disagree. The only thing I would add is that the Household Survey statistics are extremely volatile from month-to-month. Month-to-month changes in Household Survey numbers are more statistical noise than what really is happening in the real world that the statistics are trying to measure. I focus on a year or longer, with the hopes that month-to-month zigs and zags will mostly average out and underlying trends are more visible. But some people try to make the latest bad month's report out to be Obama's 7+ year record.

As an example of month-to-month volatility, here is the monthly changes in "Employed" from the Household Survey, in thousands
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

[font face = "courier new"]
` ` Jan Feb Mar Apr` May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2014 408` 93 587 -95 115 422 224` 26` 370 540` 15` 50
2015 665 127 102 176 239 -26 144 177 -101 255 247 485
2016 615 530 246 -316 26 [/font]

(Please ignore the backquote (`) marks - they are put in to add spaces to the table and keep it aligned, because DU software compresses two or more consecutive actual spaces into one space)

and here are the non-farm payroll numbers from the much larger and thus statistically less volatile Establishment Survey
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

[font face = "courier new"]
` ` Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2014 187 168 272 310 213 306 232 218 286 200 331 292
2015 221 265` 84 251 273 228 277 150 149 295 280 271
2016 168 233 186 123` 38 [/font]

Back to the May report, it's also worth highlighting that there are 21,000 fewer non-farm payroll jobs than there were in last month's report (the 38,000 gain in May was more than offset by the combined 59,000 downard revision of March and April).

The Verizon strike was a modest 35,100 drag on May's report, so it can't all be blamed on that, per https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2016/06/03/employment-situation-may

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2016 OP
philosslayer Jun 2016 #1
BumRushDaShow Jun 2016 #2
IronLionZion Jun 2016 #3
Recursion Jun 2016 #4
rladdi Jun 2016 #5
IronLionZion Jun 2016 #6
Dhantesvz Jun 2016 #7
mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2016 #10
LineLineNew Reply Yup, that's this month's report in a nutshell
progree Jun 2016 #11
progree Jun 2016 #8
mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2016 #9
GummyBearz Jun 2016 #12
mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2016 #13
GummyBearz Jun 2016 #14
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