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LaydeeBug

(10,291 posts) Sat May 27, 2017, 09:36 PM May 2017

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This! This! This all day long. Without comment [View all]

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This! This! This all day long. Without comment [View all] LaydeeBug May 2017 OP

Putin with help from his friends in Trump Tower. oasis May 2017 #1

+1 dalton99a May 2017 #33

But math is science and science is sorcery. ProudLib72 May 2017 #2

Lord... mastermetaphysics May 2017 #28

I didn't need that image. BlancheSplanchnik May 2017 #50

Stolen malaise May 2017 #3

I believe the vote counts were flipped in some of the states TheDebbieDee May 2017 #4

I believe the votes were flipped in 2016 and 2004 INdemo May 2017 #79

A math teacher SCantiGOP May 2017 #5

Not to me they don't NBachers May 2017 #7

Don't agree mountain grammy May 2017 #9

+++ agree iluvtennis May 2017 #70

Could be stolen, but this isn't the evidence. Lucky Luciano May 2017 #80

Yes-wrong. Statistician here. Problem is polls may have been flawed. american_ideals May 2017 #10

Not to mention .16% is probably based on the 5 states being independent events. Lucky Luciano May 2017 #13

Yup american_ideals May 2017 #39

Hmmm Lucky Luciano May 2017 #78

I was referring to bias in the means but such covariance could cause problems too. american_ideals May 2017 #105

They are independent polls, all robust with determineed margins of error. L. Coyote May 2017 #81

Not what I mean by independent events. Think of it like this... Lucky Luciano May 2017 #84

I'm saying is you can do the coin flip test five times and the odds are you will get 50% all five. L. Coyote May 2017 #86

. Lucky Luciano May 2017 #91

Yup, its hopeless. Some people have no understanding that the factors that make a poll wrong progree May 2017 #92

Your level of misunderstand is remarkable. L. Coyote May 2017 #93

That is a quite remarkable misunderstanding of basic high school (let alone graduate) statistics. BzaDem May 2017 #97

You need to read up on polling, and on margins of sampling error progree May 2017 #98

Mathematician here. I agree LeftInTX May 2017 #15

I wonder what the percent chance was that Trump would cheat by messing with vote totals. Squinch May 2017 #53

You mean, you castigated this OP on an ASSUMPTION you made? LaydeeBug May 2017 #30

No. Must rule out simpler explanations american_ideals May 2017 #38

and in this instance, the 'simpler explanation' is supposition. LaydeeBug May 2017 #41

Distortion of the scientific method. american_ideals May 2017 #52

...is exactly what that's doing. LaydeeBug May 2017 #55

No. Statistics isn't about ruling out other explanations. It is mathematics. L. Coyote May 2017 #82

Sorry, you can only reject the null if your model is correct american_ideals May 2017 #103

not a statistician... tomp May 2017 #44

Neither. Just OP's conclusion isn't supported. american_ideals May 2017 #51

Question about exit polls MichMary May 2017 #54

as I said, I'm no statistician.... tomp May 2017 #59

Exit polling is inferential statistics, sampling in a scientific manner. L. Coyote May 2017 #83

Professional polls take all that into account. Honeycombe8 May 2017 #60

I don't disagree american_ideals May 2017 #104

I think Trump didn't expect it. Honeycombe8 May 2017 #106

that's what they said in 2000; they haven't fixed this yet? these polls used to be very accurate... TheFrenchRazor May 2017 #73

+1. And it doesn't do us any good. Hoyt May 2017 #11

True, but how can any election be fair if their can be no recount and voting The Wielding Truth May 2017 #26

There's been a great deal of forensic review of the data SticksnStones May 2017 #32

She used a straight forward calculation of win probabilities from 538 for FL, MI, NC, PA and WI LonePirate May 2017 #56

I agree, I could tell Nate Silver was really unsure about what might happen Quixote1818 May 2017 #57

If you google "Ron Baiman" you will find triron May 2017 #6

No you won't find good analysis mythology May 2017 #17

I will check him out because this seems to be bothering some and they gaslight reflexively LaydeeBug May 2017 #40

Those States were Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, what was the other? kairos12 May 2017 #8

North Carolina. Please see #25 for the percentages and methodology (nt) progree May 2017 #27

I'm a math guy and that logic is unsound. Lucky Luciano May 2017 #12

This message was self-deleted by its author blueinredohio May 2017 #14

You better believe it. sandensea May 2017 #16

People win the lottery LostinRed May 2017 #18

This argument would make sense if we held millions of lotteries. eggplant May 2017 #20

thank you. nt LaydeeBug May 2017 #31

The funny thing is that I meant to say millions of elections. eggplant May 2017 #63

When same guy wins lottery five times, probability is very low. That's what the OP is saying. L. Coyote May 2017 #87

I live in York PA and I have said many times that when I vote I touch a name on the screen and then JoeOtterbein May 2017 #19

the machines are a joke; no one would accept them for anything else important. nt TheFrenchRazor May 2017 #75

I'm not so hot on math tonight but wouldn't .01 be one percent and the 16 would be 16 one hundredths keithbvadu2 May 2017 #21

Yes, that math teacher doesn't know percentages progree May 2017 #25

You obviously know very little about statistics, too little to criticize math teachers. L. Coyote May 2017 #88

Sorry, a probability of 0.0016 is not 16 ten thousands of 1%. And yes, I have an MSEE progree May 2017 #90

The Republicans could also have hacked the voting machines. Liberty Belle May 2017 #22

Putin probably didn't need to; the Republicans already rigged them in red states Liberty Belle May 2017 #23

Oh, I think the Russians and Republicans coordinated with one another for sure. LaydeeBug May 2017 #35

Same thinking here. Also screws democracy and social progressivism. triron May 2017 #66

from accounting class... If it cannot be audited, something is suspicious. keithbvadu2 May 2017 #36

Florida seemed most improbable to me. boston bean May 2017 #24

Check out Mike Farb on North Carolina. LaydeeBug May 2017 #34

And Wisconsin in relation to black box voting percentage. L. Coyote May 2017 #89

You betcha. 58Sunliner May 2017 #29

You should delete this thread. It makes DU look stupid, i.e., suffering KingCharlemagne May 2017 #37

Voter suppression and propaganda shifted them american_ideals May 2017 #42

I think Hillary's campaign also suffered from over-confidence. She repeated Gore's KingCharlemagne May 2017 #43

Thanks for the voice of reason SCantiGOP May 2017 #45

Hillary repeated Gore's mistakes and added a devastating one of her own Awsi Dooger May 2017 #65

Case in point: her campaign ran TV ads in the SoCal market in KingCharlemagne May 2017 #68

I know you're right Dem2 May 2017 #76

YOU should delete your post. where is the evidence that the vote counts were legit? oh yeah, the vot TheFrenchRazor May 2017 #77

Written by someone with ZERO understanding of statistics. - nt KingCharlemagne May 2017 #85

You should delete this post. It makes DU look like people don't read the OPs. L. Coyote May 2017 #94

I have always believed Trump is illegitimate and got there by cheating. Demsrule86 May 2017 #46

I've always wondered about that treestar May 2017 #47

Of Course the Voting Machines Were Hacked dlk May 2017 #48

Not a statistician. The question of hacking of certain types of voting machines Enoki33 May 2017 #61

ALL of our elections are rigged... roomtomove May 2017 #49

Shhhh. We're not supposed to say that. Honeycombe8 May 2017 #58

I've been saying this since the election results came in but couldn't figure Maraya1969 May 2017 #62

The number .0016 is NOT "16 ten thousandths of 1%." Towlie May 2017 #64

Absolutely SCantiGOP May 2017 #69

True. P 0.0016. Where P 0.50 is 50% probability, i.e. a coin toss. L. Coyote May 2017 #95

I think absentee votes need to be looked at. drm604 May 2017 #67

Those of us that supported her weren't fooled. (nt) ehrnst May 2017 #71

Oh, good lord. paleotn May 2017 #72

But nobody can or will do anything about it. ecstatic May 2017 #74

This is absurd, and shows a basic lack of understanding of high school probability and statistics. BzaDem May 2017 #96

Wrong polls. This is about the exit polls. L. Coyote May 2017 #100

Those percentages in Hux's tweets are not based on exit polls progree May 2017 #101

You are confusing "exit polls" with "statistics". Exit polls use statistics, but a problem with BzaDem May 2017 #102

Explain Minnesota - a state Hillary narrowly WON (by 1.5%). When Minnesota's that tight, Midwestern Democrat May 2017 #99