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Igel

(35,197 posts)
30. I can't get to the actual article.
Wed Dec 28, 2016, 04:50 PM
Dec 2016

Just the press release. The headline says "rate," but the article entails "number." That's a egregious bit of confusion.

Meanwhile, there was a jump in the homicide rate from 2005 to 2006. http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/flcrime.htm

It ended a multi-year low-homicide period, and was the third lowest year (looking at the absolute numbers) since '77. In other words, the year taken as the baseline, as the standard for comparison, is an outlier. It's hard to not pick that year in some way, but "easy" isn't always "correct." Strictly speaking 2004 would have been a better year. The law too effect on 10/1/2005, so 25% of the baseline year is also in the dataset that's being evaluated. But if they'd picked 2004 they'd have not gotten the results they did. Again, picking an outlier skews the stats.

A few years after the jump in 2006, the rate declined again, presumably for reasons also not well understood since SYG didn't go away. The absolute numbers also declined, but not nearly as much. Comparing 2005 to 2015, there's an increase of 160 homicides. But the rate increased only by 0.1. What accounts for the difference?

The population increased during that time. Factor out the population increase and take a multi-year window for averaging the rates, and the increase vanishes. (Just eyeballing it, it looks like the rate declined. But that's because 2005 was anomalously low.) I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that whatever else happened perhaps the size of the male 18-24 year-old cohort in Florida increased.

Like I said, can't get to the original article. Perhaps they did note that the homicide rate went from 5.0 to 5.1 percent, after getting down into the upper 4.x range, and count that as a 30% (instead of a 2%) increase. Or perhaps they found other deaths to include. Dunno. But press-release conclusions devoid of statistical clarity are bad premises for much of anything.

Study "did not find enough evidence to definitively find the law caused the increase" Marengo Dec 2016 #1
It will only get better........... HAB911 Dec 2016 #2
"...the STG law in Florida has resulted in far more harm occurring than it was argued it would" etherealtruth Dec 2016 #3
Begs the question of "harm" to who? Marengo Dec 2016 #9
Human beings. Nothing to question. etherealtruth Dec 2016 #10
Human beings doing what? Marengo Dec 2016 #13
Apparently, human beings engaged in a multitude of activities of daily living etherealtruth Dec 2016 #15
Perhsps if that "some" had not included criminally threatening activities in their activities... Marengo Dec 2016 #16
Thats an odd take ... What level of "criminality" entitles one to murder? etherealtruth Dec 2016 #17
Wouldn't that level be established by the statute in question? Murder is an unlawful killing. Marengo Dec 2016 #20
...or murder is the taking of a life with cause or justificatiion (a moral decision) etherealtruth Dec 2016 #26
You didn't answer my question. Where the majority found to be unlawful? Marengo Jan 2017 #56
Irrelevant ... laws need not be just or moral etherealtruth Jan 2017 #57
I did not ask your opinion as to the morality of the law in question. I asked if the majority... Marengo Jan 2017 #58
More than half were ... google SYG Florida and you will be provided a wealth of information etherealtruth Jan 2017 #59
It's important you keep moving your goalposts LanternWaste Jan 2017 #52
Oh, In Trayvon Martin's case, walking home. In Jordan Davis's case, riding in a car with friends. Hoyt Dec 2016 #32
Can you provide a cite to an example of an NRA certified instructor recommending to "never tell... Marengo Dec 2016 #33
The last sentence, I am quoting racist gun lovers. The NRA most certainly tells you to say you were Hoyt Dec 2016 #35
Can you provides links to the sources of the quotes? Marengo Dec 2016 #37
Still waiting for the source (s) of the quote. You do understand what a quote is, correct? Marengo Jan 2017 #42
Are all cases of SYG homicide unjustified? A majority? Marengo Dec 2016 #34
I think most cases could be handled without resorting to a gun. But, gunners have invested too Hoyt Dec 2016 #36
What is your definition of a "gunner" in this context? Marengo Jan 2017 #43
When most of your DU posts are in support of lethal weapons, I'd say "gunner" likely applies. Hoyt Jan 2017 #44
These persons are most likely racists waiting for a chance to kill? Can you give us usernames? Marengo Jan 2017 #45
Hoyt doesn't do quotes hack89 Jan 2017 #47
I don't expect someone enamored with gunz to understand the use of quotation marks or anything Hoyt Jan 2017 #49
Since I don't own any gunz hack89 Jan 2017 #50
You: "I am quoting racist gun lovers". Can you cite or link to the source of these statements? Marengo Jan 2017 #51
Is hack89 a "gunner" as you define the term? Marengo Jan 2017 #61
But if it's Teabillys shooting other Teabilly's it's not really harm is it? OregonBlue Dec 2016 #29
Is being a "teabilly" itself a criminal act? Marengo Jan 2017 #55
Jama link has stopped working, here is another take HAB911 Dec 2016 #4
What % of those are claimed self defense using SYG? ileus Dec 2016 #5
Guns are offensive weapons, not defensive....nt Wounded Bear Dec 2016 #6
Guns are never used in self defense? Marengo Dec 2016 #7
Only in the sense of 'the best defense is a good offense.' Wounded Bear Dec 2016 #8
"A gun provides a means to counterattack." And an effective one at that! jmg257 Dec 2016 #11
Point taken. However, I would argue that protection is accomplished with the neutralization... Marengo Dec 2016 #12
Strange - homicides up, even non-gun, but most crime rates down... jmg257 Dec 2016 #14
If I wanted to murder someone, I'd take them on a vacation to Florida. Vinca Dec 2016 #18
Sickeningly, that is probably a workable plan etherealtruth Dec 2016 #19
irrelevant study Calculating Dec 2016 #21
Irrelevant comment HAB911 Dec 2016 #22
Insufficient evidence Calculating Dec 2016 #23
I live here HAB911 Dec 2016 #24
Well don't give them a reason Calculating Dec 2016 #25
Martin should have shot him and stood his ground HAB911 Dec 2016 #27
WTF IS WRONG WITH YOU? Skittles Dec 2016 #39
WTF is wrong indeed HAB911 Dec 2016 #41
Why attack a guy displaying a gun? Calculating Jan 2017 #62
The actual study cited an increase in the rate of homicide ... not gun violence. etherealtruth Dec 2016 #28
I can't get to the actual article. Igel Dec 2016 #30
I found it earlier (via a backdoor google, but can't recreate to get to it ... articles dated 1/2017 etherealtruth Dec 2016 #31
It's important you cling to the study being irrelevant LanternWaste Jan 2017 #53
Bingo LittleBlue Dec 2016 #40
Unless, of course, gun violence had decreased Orrex Jan 2017 #54
Not surprised rockfordfile Dec 2016 #38
Guess it's working as intended then. Crunchy Frog Jan 2017 #46
Several things- like using homicide rates instead of murder rates Lee-Lee Jan 2017 #48
Stand Your Ground law not working as intended despite changing self defense in Florida HAB911 Jan 2017 #60
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