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Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)
95. are you suggesting that the people in that link are anti-science deniers?
Tue Sep 13, 2016, 06:37 PM
Sep 2016

"Harvard University sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson" doesn't have the authority to make a scientific calculation on the matter?



One such scientist, the eminent Harvard University sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson, bases his estimate on calculations of the Earth's available resources. As Wilson pointed out in his book "The Future of Life" (Knopf, 2002), "The constraints of the biosphere are fixed."

***

Fortunately, we may be spared from entering the end-times phase of overpopulation and starvation envisioned by Malthus. According to the United Nations Population Division, the human population will hit 7 billion on or around Oct. 31, and, if its projections are correct, we're en route to a population of 9 billion by 2050, and 10 billion by 2100. However, somewhere on the road between those milestones, scientists think we'll make a U-turn.

UN estimates of global population trends show that families are getting smaller. "Empirical data from 230 countries since 1950 shows that the great majority have fertility declines," said Gerhard Heilig, chief of population estimates and projections section at the UN.

Globally, the fertility rate is falling to the "replacement level" — 2.1 children per woman, the rate at which children replace their parents (and make up for those who die young). If the global fertility rate does indeed reach replacement level by the end of the century, then the human population will stabilize between 9 billion and 10 billion. As far as Earth's capacity is concerned, we'll have gone about as far as we can go, but no farther.


edited to add: I plugged "carrying capacity of the planet" into google, and that was the FIRST thing that came up. Note there was no particular spin attached to my search wording, it's not like I was looking for a particular answer.

Reproduction rates are already at historic lows and have been declining for decades... pipoman Sep 2016 #1
Exactly. The population of several EU countries is in decline. Here in the US it will be within 10. tonyt53 Sep 2016 #2
He is on about this... FLPanhandle Sep 2016 #3
+1000 smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #4
You can take the first step...yeah, I didn't think so... pipoman Sep 2016 #12
What is the first step? sammythecat Sep 2016 #64
We should sterilize the poor...that would fix it. pipoman Sep 2016 #11
World population growth has slowed, but the population is still growing athena Sep 2016 #6
Do what? pipoman Sep 2016 #13
You do understand the difference athena Sep 2016 #22
But didn't that just acknowledge my point, and the other person's point? tonyt53 Sep 2016 #26
You're assuming we will not run out of resources in the meantime. athena Sep 2016 #27
Not assuming anything of the sort. We also are producing enough to keep up with demand. tonyt53 Sep 2016 #29
Look at the link I posted. athena Sep 2016 #33
Ahh, but with your "assuming" defense of it speaks otherwise. tonyt53 Sep 2016 #77
Food production is currently heavily dependant upon fossil fuels, a nonrenewable resource NickB79 Sep 2016 #129
We are using higher and higher percentages of renewable energy every year pipoman Sep 2016 #30
You didn't look at the link I posted, did you? athena Sep 2016 #32
Yeah more people are using sanitary systems every year pipoman Sep 2016 #39
Thank you for explaining this very simple concept. smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #55
Do something where? - the better question bhikkhu Sep 2016 #34
More education and economic opportunities for women. smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #56
Europe, Asia, North and South America are not "basically OK already." athena Sep 2016 #58
Thank you. raccoon Sep 2016 #63
But we're humans, not North Americans The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #66
Interesting points. athena Sep 2016 #68
The biological goal isn't to populate the planet The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #78
True, it depends on which problem you are looking at bhikkhu Sep 2016 #108
The United States isn't the globe. This is what this guy is on about: NickB79 Sep 2016 #9
Probably will be about 1-2 billion. roamer65 Sep 2016 #41
And yet, LWolf Sep 2016 #46
We're not really built to save the planet The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #5
In the movie Idiocracy the "smart" folks failed to reproduce - leaving us with: jonno99 Sep 2016 #7
In reality, smart folks often have stupid children athena Sep 2016 #8
If the world is screwed by my wife and I having two kids, linuxman Sep 2016 #17
I would worry about the kind of world your children will have to live in, athena Sep 2016 #23
My children are part of the viable hopes of fixing our world/society one day. linuxman Sep 2016 #24
You seriously believe your genes are superior to those of the 7.4 billion people in the world? athena Sep 2016 #25
Not sure how you got that, but whatever. linuxman Sep 2016 #42
So you're against immigration, then? Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #43
It's responses like that that make this such a difficult topic to discuss The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #50
I have seen those angry mobs of stroller pushers roaming the streets, hunting for well-rested adults Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #45
Intelligence is more closely related to environment than genetic heritage bhikkhu Sep 2016 #35
might not environment be related to some genetic component? there could be more than TheFrenchRazor Sep 2016 #38
Meanwhile, people who don't give a fuck about saving the planet are having a "quiverfull." Iggo Sep 2016 #10
i knew this for years. just because i like old cemeteries and i saw that start trek w/ the bee pansypoo53219 Sep 2016 #14
No, not to save the planet. To save humans. Avalux Sep 2016 #15
maybe Travis could "put his money where his mouth is" so to speak. frankieallen Sep 2016 #16
What makes you think he is not doing so? athena Sep 2016 #28
he hasn't jumped off a building yet, ya know, to save the planet. frankieallen Sep 2016 #82
His article is about having fewer children, not committing suicide. athena Sep 2016 #101
Why do so many people automatically assume that any argument that discusses population control smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #117
Why do so many so called liberals have such a problem with controlling fertility smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #18
I don't get it either. DLevine Sep 2016 #20
Even some on this thread get illogical and emotional about a real problem FLPanhandle Sep 2016 #47
Thanks! I feel like people are taking this personally or like the message is that smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #54
At the same time, every institution we've built is based on more people The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #57
Children are largely seen as a want that must be fulfilled no matter the cost REP Sep 2016 #96
People are very threatened by the idea of a woman who wants to live her own life. athena Sep 2016 #99
I would guess it's the abstract goals of doing it The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #48
Who has said anything about non-white people having fewer babies? athena Sep 2016 #102
Well where are the largest birth rates in the world? The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #115
BIG K&R! Thanks for posting this smirkymonkey. nt riderinthestorm Sep 2016 #19
Thanks rider! I wish we could have a logical discussion about this on DU smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #132
It's an important topic. Kick and rec. nt DLevine Sep 2016 #21
I've read a lot about population growth over the last decade Victor_c3 Sep 2016 #31
The problem isn't the North and South American and European countries. Calista241 Sep 2016 #36
Because we try to save everyone The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #72
Short of doing cap and trade on wombs, I'm not sure how this would work Major Nikon Sep 2016 #37
Religion is one of the biggest obstacles here. smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #81
"One planet, One child." roamer65 Sep 2016 #40
These threads always go exactly the same, every time. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #44
A few comments FLPanhandle Sep 2016 #49
That's really the basis of every argument society has The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #51
I've concluded that some people are absolutely miserable if they cant tell other people what to do. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #53
I think most people have a little pro-choice and anti-choice in them The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #59
It's not "it will sort itself out naturally"; it DOES. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #52
Of course, it may sort itself out through disease, famine, floods, wars, and cannibalism. athena Sep 2016 #60
We can incent people to not have children too FLPanhandle Sep 2016 #62
Good point! athena Sep 2016 #67
Having children is what will keep society functional in the future The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #69
Immigration provides plenty of taxpayers. athena Sep 2016 #71
"No one should feel they should have children to keep society functional." The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #74
Go ahead and twist my argument. athena Sep 2016 #75
Hear, hear! smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #83
that's an incredibly realistic and sensible proposal, you've made there. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #88
So society does need people to function in the future The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #89
this thread isn't about practical, realistic solutions. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #94
You seem to be suggesting that we just give up. athena Sep 2016 #103
We shouldnt give up. We should recognize what has already worked. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #111
I'm not saying give up, I'm saying we're stuck in a loop no matter what we do The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #113
Well, It's kind of hard to have taxpayers when there aren't enough jobs to go around for smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #97
Absolutely The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #114
I think it will require a combination of stick and carrot solutions FLPanhandle Sep 2016 #70
I love that! athena Sep 2016 #73
so, like what sort of criticism would you level at a family that has 3 children? Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #87
I can't tell you how many women I have met in my life who have told me smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #98
And like I said, that's a resource utilization problem, not a population one. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #86
The uncomfortable truth is we are already beyond the carrying capacity of the Earth FLPanhandle Sep 2016 #61
that's an arbitrary and non-scientific conclusion, Malthus. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #85
It is dire and scientific FLPanhandle Sep 2016 #90
"Many scientists think Earth has a maximum carrying capacity of 9 billion to 10 billion people." Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #91
You can also find a scientific study denying climate change in 10 seconds FLPanhandle Sep 2016 #93
are you suggesting that the people in that link are anti-science deniers? Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #95
Did you even read the article you linked? athena Sep 2016 #100
you're not listening to me, and I think you're the one who didn't read the article. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #104
Please read the whole article. athena Sep 2016 #105
I don't eat red meat, not that my diet (or reproductive life) is really any of your business. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #106
You're the one putting all your hopes in a sudden worldwide conversion to vegetarianism. athena Sep 2016 #109
I didn't say I was putting all my hopes on vegetarianism, and neither did the article. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #110
It is in fact as dire as he said it is. NickB79 Sep 2016 #130
Or have twenty, and make sure they stick together and are all outfitted like the Lord Humungus. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #131
Is that a life you'd want your children to live? NickB79 Sep 2016 #134
Okay, fine, you win, I won't have any more children. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #135
Ok I wont have any more Egnever Sep 2016 #65
Yeah, I was totally going to have 10 kids until I read this thread Zing Zing Zingbah Sep 2016 #126
Know what keeps me from having any more? Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #128
Thom Hartmann is discussing over-population on his show today. napi21 Sep 2016 #76
I agree completely that everyone who thinks like this should have few children as possible. CBGLuthier Sep 2016 #79
The thing that drops birth rate most is participation by women in a society ehrnst Sep 2016 #80
Exactly! smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #84
At 57 it kind of feels good not having contributed nolabels Sep 2016 #92
Absolutely. I don't recommend parenting to anyone. It has to be something you opt into ehrnst Sep 2016 #116
I've always looked as raising children the same way. Other people can deal with that shit. RB TexLa Sep 2016 #122
I'm doing my part UMTerp01 Sep 2016 #107
I've formed my own society to crush the power of fecundity Orrex Sep 2016 #112
You are reading something into what I have posted that isn't there. smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #118
I read the article, and he does the classic thing of setting up imaginary strawmen to make his case. Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #119
Then the question is is the replacement rate too high The2ndWheel Sep 2016 #127
well, upthread you have people suggesting we should lower our birthrate to zero and then just import Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #133
We are not your friends Orrex Sep 2016 #121
Grow up. smirkymonkey Sep 2016 #123
The crops are few, the cattle gone Orrex Sep 2016 #125
There's no messiah in here Warren DeMontague Sep 2016 #120
Because children are ter-- graegoyle Sep 2016 #124
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