Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: "Why we should have fewer children: to save the planet" [View all]Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)95. are you suggesting that the people in that link are anti-science deniers?
"Harvard University sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson" doesn't have the authority to make a scientific calculation on the matter?
One such scientist, the eminent Harvard University sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson, bases his estimate on calculations of the Earth's available resources. As Wilson pointed out in his book "The Future of Life" (Knopf, 2002), "The constraints of the biosphere are fixed."
***
Fortunately, we may be spared from entering the end-times phase of overpopulation and starvation envisioned by Malthus. According to the United Nations Population Division, the human population will hit 7 billion on or around Oct. 31, and, if its projections are correct, we're en route to a population of 9 billion by 2050, and 10 billion by 2100. However, somewhere on the road between those milestones, scientists think we'll make a U-turn.
UN estimates of global population trends show that families are getting smaller. "Empirical data from 230 countries since 1950 shows that the great majority have fertility declines," said Gerhard Heilig, chief of population estimates and projections section at the UN.
Globally, the fertility rate is falling to the "replacement level" 2.1 children per woman, the rate at which children replace their parents (and make up for those who die young). If the global fertility rate does indeed reach replacement level by the end of the century, then the human population will stabilize between 9 billion and 10 billion. As far as Earth's capacity is concerned, we'll have gone about as far as we can go, but no farther.
***
Fortunately, we may be spared from entering the end-times phase of overpopulation and starvation envisioned by Malthus. According to the United Nations Population Division, the human population will hit 7 billion on or around Oct. 31, and, if its projections are correct, we're en route to a population of 9 billion by 2050, and 10 billion by 2100. However, somewhere on the road between those milestones, scientists think we'll make a U-turn.
UN estimates of global population trends show that families are getting smaller. "Empirical data from 230 countries since 1950 shows that the great majority have fertility declines," said Gerhard Heilig, chief of population estimates and projections section at the UN.
Globally, the fertility rate is falling to the "replacement level" 2.1 children per woman, the rate at which children replace their parents (and make up for those who die young). If the global fertility rate does indeed reach replacement level by the end of the century, then the human population will stabilize between 9 billion and 10 billion. As far as Earth's capacity is concerned, we'll have gone about as far as we can go, but no farther.
edited to add: I plugged "carrying capacity of the planet" into google, and that was the FIRST thing that came up. Note there was no particular spin attached to my search wording, it's not like I was looking for a particular answer.
Edit history
Please sign in to view edit histories.
135 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
RecommendedHighlight replies with 5 or more recommendations
Reproduction rates are already at historic lows and have been declining for decades...
pipoman
Sep 2016
#1
Exactly. The population of several EU countries is in decline. Here in the US it will be within 10.
tonyt53
Sep 2016
#2
Not assuming anything of the sort. We also are producing enough to keep up with demand.
tonyt53
Sep 2016
#29
Food production is currently heavily dependant upon fossil fuels, a nonrenewable resource
NickB79
Sep 2016
#129
You seriously believe your genes are superior to those of the 7.4 billion people in the world?
athena
Sep 2016
#25
I have seen those angry mobs of stroller pushers roaming the streets, hunting for well-rested adults
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#45
might not environment be related to some genetic component? there could be more than
TheFrenchRazor
Sep 2016
#38
Meanwhile, people who don't give a fuck about saving the planet are having a "quiverfull."
Iggo
Sep 2016
#10
i knew this for years. just because i like old cemeteries and i saw that start trek w/ the bee
pansypoo53219
Sep 2016
#14
Why do so many people automatically assume that any argument that discusses population control
smirkymonkey
Sep 2016
#117
Why do so many so called liberals have such a problem with controlling fertility
smirkymonkey
Sep 2016
#18
Thanks! I feel like people are taking this personally or like the message is that
smirkymonkey
Sep 2016
#54
People are very threatened by the idea of a woman who wants to live her own life.
athena
Sep 2016
#99
I've concluded that some people are absolutely miserable if they cant tell other people what to do.
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#53
Of course, it may sort itself out through disease, famine, floods, wars, and cannibalism.
athena
Sep 2016
#60
that's an incredibly realistic and sensible proposal, you've made there.
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#88
I'm not saying give up, I'm saying we're stuck in a loop no matter what we do
The2ndWheel
Sep 2016
#113
Well, It's kind of hard to have taxpayers when there aren't enough jobs to go around for
smirkymonkey
Sep 2016
#97
so, like what sort of criticism would you level at a family that has 3 children?
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#87
And like I said, that's a resource utilization problem, not a population one.
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#86
The uncomfortable truth is we are already beyond the carrying capacity of the Earth
FLPanhandle
Sep 2016
#61
"Many scientists think Earth has a maximum carrying capacity of 9 billion to 10 billion people."
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#91
are you suggesting that the people in that link are anti-science deniers?
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#95
you're not listening to me, and I think you're the one who didn't read the article.
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#104
I don't eat red meat, not that my diet (or reproductive life) is really any of your business.
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#106
You're the one putting all your hopes in a sudden worldwide conversion to vegetarianism.
athena
Sep 2016
#109
I didn't say I was putting all my hopes on vegetarianism, and neither did the article.
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#110
Or have twenty, and make sure they stick together and are all outfitted like the Lord Humungus.
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#131
I agree completely that everyone who thinks like this should have few children as possible.
CBGLuthier
Sep 2016
#79
Absolutely. I don't recommend parenting to anyone. It has to be something you opt into
ehrnst
Sep 2016
#116
I've always looked as raising children the same way. Other people can deal with that shit.
RB TexLa
Sep 2016
#122
I read the article, and he does the classic thing of setting up imaginary strawmen to make his case.
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#119
well, upthread you have people suggesting we should lower our birthrate to zero and then just import
Warren DeMontague
Sep 2016
#133