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Response to mrmpa (Original post)

Sun Jul 17, 2016, 11:07 AM

37. What?! Holy CRAP!

From that one move, several early guesses can be made:

* Removing a speaker from the list is about as big a tell as you can show in the VP guessing game (unless you're Republican and Tim Tebow backs out on you). Furthermore, the timing of this move suggests that it is intentional, designed to tip off the press and tealeaf-readers so that pollsters can run their hypothetical matchup scenarios. It injects enthusiasm into Democrats and shows the general lack of finesse in the Republican pick, and keeps people looking ahead to the Democratic Convention while the dumpster fire burns. Warren can easily be added back to the speaker list if this is a head-fake, but it risks upsetting those of us who would consider the pick of Warren to be an excellent one.

* As best I can tell, Mass. election law now allows for an interim gubernatorial appointment, for up to 160 days, at which point a special election must be held. The current governor is Republican, and his appointment will have a leg up in the next regular election, and he may be able to run in the special election as well. Picking Warren would concede a large but not insurmountable advantage to the Massachusetts Republicans. Democrats must feel confident that Warren's position can be refilled by another Democrat in mid-2017.

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate.aspx

* Assuming a win, the move would also promote the highly competent Ed Markey to the position of senior Senator from Massachusetts, which certainly puts him in a position for higher office or future cabinet posts. Markey got his current post through a clever double-move by the Obama Administration after the death of Ted Kennedy, in which they moved John Kerry to Secretary of State and created two new powerhouse Senators (Warren and Markey) with the move.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=263986

* Democrats cannot make a move like this without conceding territory in the Senate, temporarily. That, in turn, could dramatically influence the course of events that President Clinton can follow in her first five months... UNLESS your internal polling suggests that Democrats are going to wind up holding somewhere around 53-59 seats in the Senate. That range is enough to control business in the Senate, but not enough to override a filibuster. It provides some padding to give a seat away, temporarily. The Warren hand-tip suggests that Democrats are now very confident about regaining a strong majority in the Senate.

* In retrospect it appears as if Mrs. Clinton has been carefully judging the reactions of voters as she appeared with or dangled potential running mates, including Tim Kaine just last week. I recall a hypothetical scenario poll from much earlier in the year that suggested that a Clinton/Warren ticket could defeat any combination of Republicans.

* Democrats must also have noted something about the "misogyny vector" which works in our favor. My current assumption is that the racists are the misogynists, so that doubling down on a female ticket doesn't change any minds on the Republican side, but it must have a net positive effect on Democratic and undecided voters. That squares well with my own personal bias, though, so it's not a solid guess like some of the above.

The Senate will sorely miss Mrs. Warren, if she accepts the nomination as running-mate. But Ed Markey is a superb replacement as senior Senator and Massachusetts has a deep bag of competent leadership which can replace Warren. Democrats must feel considerably more confident about the upcoming elections than I suspected, for Warren is an intrepid and potentially risky choice in several ways. Wonderful!

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Arrow 49 replies Author Time Post
mrmpa Jul 2016 OP
emulatorloo Jul 2016 #1
VOX Jul 2016 #2
applegrove Jul 2016 #3
DonCoquixote Jul 2016 #4
napi21 Jul 2016 #5
Firebrand Gary Jul 2016 #6
PoliticalMalcontent Jul 2016 #7
lostnfound Jul 2016 #10
Helen Borg Jul 2016 #8
Her Sister Jul 2016 #14
AntiBank Jul 2016 #16
Her Sister Jul 2016 #18
AntiBank Jul 2016 #19
mercuryblues Jul 2016 #27
Helen Borg Jul 2016 #20
Her Sister Jul 2016 #21
Bluenorthwest Jul 2016 #23
Her Sister Jul 2016 #24
ChisolmTrailDem Jul 2016 #46
Her Sister Jul 2016 #47
ChisolmTrailDem Jul 2016 #48
Warren DeMontague Jul 2016 #17
bettyellen Jul 2016 #30
Warren DeMontague Jul 2016 #38
bettyellen Jul 2016 #39
Warren DeMontague Jul 2016 #42
bettyellen Jul 2016 #43
Fla Dem Jul 2016 #31
SunSeeker Jul 2016 #9
PunkinPi Jul 2016 #28
Donald Ian Rankin Jul 2016 #11
OnDoutside Jul 2016 #15
Wounded Bear Jul 2016 #34
oberliner Jul 2016 #12
Her Sister Jul 2016 #13
Vinca Jul 2016 #22
StopTheNeoCons Jul 2016 #25
thucythucy Jul 2016 #26
Nedsdag Jul 2016 #29
Zynx Jul 2016 #33
JenniferJuniper Jul 2016 #35
mountain grammy Jul 2016 #32
flamingdem Jul 2016 #36
LineReply What?! Holy CRAP!
sofa king Jul 2016 #37
Small Accumulates Jul 2016 #40
sofa king Jul 2016 #45
Small Accumulates Jul 2016 #49
eleny Jul 2016 #41
roamer65 Jul 2016 #44
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