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CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
8. Actually both Hillary and Bernie do better than Trump
Tue Sep 29, 2015, 09:57 AM
Sep 2015

According to Pew Research, 48% of the electorate are Democrats or Independents who lean Democratic.

Hillary's latest poll number is 42%

0.48 X 0.42 = 0.202 or 20%

Bernie's last poll number was 35%

0.48 X 0.35 = .0.168 or 17%

In addition I think that most Democrats and Independents who lean their way will ultimately vote for the Democratic candidate regardless of whether Hillary, Bernie or Joe ultimately wins the nomination. So the Democratic candidate will probably receive at minimum nearly 48% of the vote.

I am not at all sure that a similar situation will occur on the Republican side if Trump wins. As Jeb Bush says, Trump is not a true Republican or a conservative. So Trump might not even be assured of the support of the 39% of the people who normally vote for Republicans.

In addition the Democratic candidates are actually putting out proposals which can stand scrutiny over the long haul, while Trump's proposals have been mostly hot air. Even his rather detailed tax proposal will torn apart by economists and tax experts because he doesn't show how he can pay for his proposed tax cuts except for saying "I am the business god and I will make the economy grow" - more hot air.

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