I hate that stupid, reflexive response that any pollster bearing bad news... (Reply #23)

In the discussion thread: Nate Silver: GOP favored to win Senate [View all]

Sun Mar 23, 2014, 04:03 PM

Silent3 (12,527 posts)

23. I hate that stupid, reflexive response that any pollster bearing bad news...

...must be "shilling" for the other side.

Nate Silver has a pretty sound methodology with a good track record, about which you have failed to point out any specific flaws. You're the only here just "saying shit".

Apart from that, calling the odds 60/40 in favor of Republicans wouldn't be very effective shilling even if Silver were a shill. For anyone who has any smarts, and was ever motivated enough to go out and work for Democratic victory in the first place, these results are in the useful kick-in-the-pants department, not the instilling hopeless despondency department.

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157 replies	Author	Time	Post
Nate Silver: GOP favored to win Senate [View all]	BrentWil	Mar 2014	OP
if that happens we might as well just flush	2pooped2pop	Mar 2014	#1
We will win it back in 2016... The map	BrentWil	Mar 2014	#5
Yeah sure.....	Historic NY	Mar 2014	#7
they will push through so much bullshit that it won't be worth living here	2pooped2pop	Mar 2014	#9
fear not	d_b	Mar 2014	#53
Dems will filibuster and Obama will veto the crazy shit in the budget...	Hippo_Tron	Mar 2014	#91
Filibuster what?	Beacool	Mar 2014	#117
They ended it for nominees, not for legislation...	Hippo_Tron	Mar 2014	#151
Thanks for the clarification.	Beacool	Mar 2014	#154
We are at serious risk for decades because of the gerrymandering	pnwmom	Mar 2014	#24
Bullshit observation. We MUST hold the Senate and try to win the House.	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#40
Except that it takes two-thirds of the Senate to convict the President on impeachment.	TexasTowelie	Mar 2014	#95
The GOP will NEVER try to impeach Obama.	DetlefK	Mar 2014	#132
Believe that if you want to.	Chisox08	Mar 2014	#147
No. The Republicans will have most races fixed by then unless Team Koch makes	ballyhoo	Mar 2014	#62
And Koch _WILL_ overplay their hand	Timez Squarez	Mar 2014	#68
That's the spirit!	ballyhoo	Mar 2014	#76
No, the President has the veto pen and they won't have a two thirds mandate	seveneyes	Mar 2014	#39
If republicans control the House and Senate, with their current mindset, they	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#43
I think they learned their lesson about impeachment	customerserviceguy	Mar 2014	#102
No one is going to impeach Obama.	Beacool	Mar 2014	#120
Nate Silver ...shilling for the GOP?	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#2
As saying shit isn't good analysis doesn't make it so	BrentWil	Mar 2014	#6
In 2012 he called all 50 states.	former9thward	Mar 2014	#41
Ok ...so never mind voting then. Thanks for the pep talk.	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#85
The poster I was replying to said Silver was shit.	former9thward	Mar 2014	#87
To be fair, he only had to call nine states	Blue_Tires	Mar 2014	#99
Who else did?	former9thward	Mar 2014	#123
I didn't say that, did I?	Blue_Tires	Mar 2014	#131
Actually, many other websites and statisticians were even more accurate.	Dawgs	Mar 2014	#136
So did just taking an average of all of the final polls.	Dawgs	Mar 2014	#111
Why don't you get in the business then?	former9thward	Mar 2014	#122
Actually, I'm working on it right now.	Dawgs	Mar 2014	#135
Well good luck to you.	former9thward	Mar 2014	#138
I'll let the chicken little gang enjoy snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#84
LOL, we love Nate when he says dems will win. We hate him other wise. So stupid. n-t	Logical	Mar 2014	#18
I'm pretty sure there will be plenty here rubbing their hands will glee over that prediction n/t	Sheepshank	Mar 2014	#29
Cheering for the negative? Are you sure you are on the right site?	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#82
Cheering his accuracy. You can be in denial all you want. n-t	Logical	Mar 2014	#88
So yea ...don't bother to vote. So we loose and you would be happy that the pollster was right.	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#106
I don't think that is what Logical is saying.	Beacool	Mar 2014	#121
+1	Agschmid	Mar 2014	#126
Lol, temper temper, who said not to vote? Are you mad bro? nt	Logical	Mar 2014	#134
Yea ...I am angry that Dems didn't get out and vote for Alex Sink ...maybe they saw Nate's poll...	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#141
Nate had a poll for that special election?	Capt. Obvious	Mar 2014	#144
Well, then they are stupid I agree, but Nate will predict based on facts....	Logical	Mar 2014	#149
I hate that stupid, reflexive response that any pollster bearing bad news...	Silent3	Mar 2014	#23
So true! nt	Logical	Mar 2014	#31
Imagine carrying this response out in other areas	Capt. Obvious	Mar 2014	#37
+1	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#80
The "Pure" crowd has planted their flag. You see them repeatedly on DU	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#46
nailed it nt	steve2470	Mar 2014	#103
Rushing into defeat ...huh. Are you sure you are on the right site?	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#81
You somehow equate what I said with "rushing into defeat"?	Silent3	Mar 2014	#92
Most teams have cheerleaders. Nate is right? ...ok ...so don't bother to vote. Got it!	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#109
No one said that.	Agschmid	Mar 2014	#127
All except for the fact that I said the exact opposite about voting.	Silent3	Mar 2014	#139
So polling legitimacy is based	demwing	Mar 2014	#101
Are you trying to depress us and trying to make people not vote? WTF	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#105
Perhaps these polls should encourage Democrats...	NobodyHere	Mar 2014	#113
That's a much better way to use the poll. Saying Nate's always right is saying don't bother to vote.	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#116
No, it isn't saying that at all	demwing	Mar 2014	#119
You're fucking welcome	demwing	Mar 2014	#118
..and enjoy your Dems are going to loose fucking poll.	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#140
You've lost it in this sub thread.	Agschmid	Mar 2014	#130
...^ that	840high	Mar 2014	#94
Silver is a Statistician, he calls it as he sees it. We must prove him wrong. We	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#44
Prove him wrong or never mind voting. Take your choice!	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#86
Some of us have no one to vote for for some races	Art_from_Ark	Mar 2014	#100
That's a really	ProSense	Mar 2014	#3
Yes but...	BrentWil	Mar 2014	#8
Landrieu is leading her likely Rethug opponent by 7 points.	Dawson Leery	Mar 2014	#13
she leads her likely opponent in a jungle primary	dsc	Mar 2014	#49
There will be NO 'poorly-financed tea party upstart' with Koch dollars in play. n/t	freshwest	Mar 2014	#66
Actually, every Koch dollars will be exposed as dirty	Timez Squarez	Mar 2014	#69
What Wilburforce will do this?	freshwest	Mar 2014	#79
Meh. Let's just focus on 2016	Cali_Democrat	Mar 2014	#4
Nope.	Rex	Mar 2014	#10
This message was self-deleted by its author	Nye Bevan	Mar 2014	#11
repubs already control the senate, this will be a mere formality nt	msongs	Mar 2014	#12
+1000	Tom Ripley	Mar 2014	#14
ouch	d_b	Mar 2014	#54
Yep. Pretty much..........	ballyhoo	Mar 2014	#59
It might be a bad year for Democrats	rumdude	Mar 2014	#15
Uh no. Democrats only need 17 seats to take the House	BumRushDaShow	Mar 2014	#16
About time someone said it!	philosslayer	Mar 2014	#57
Does any forecaster predict that Democrats will come close to picking up 17 seats?	Pepper Cat	Mar 2014	#146
During the gov't shutdown	BumRushDaShow	Mar 2014	#156
Bullshit. Saying the mid-terms aren't important is a giveaway to the republicans.	arcane1	Mar 2014	#30
There are some "There is no difference between Democrats and republicans"	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#48
2014 is just as important nt	steve2470	Mar 2014	#104
I take him at his word	Kild the Radio Star	Mar 2014	#17
49.2 (D) - 50.8 (R) this far out isn't bad.	Motown_Johnny	Mar 2014	#19
Georgia looks promising.	Dawson Leery	Mar 2014	#20
the Moral Monday movement spilling over there may help turnout too n/t	Motown_Johnny	Mar 2014	#22
In particular that it is in the South. Seats in Georgia, Louisiana,	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#50
How promising?	Pepper Cat	Mar 2014	#145
Favored, yes, but not by such a margin that it can't be turned around	Silent3	Mar 2014	#21
It is important that Democrats GOTV, if that happens, Democrats	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#55
It's too early to just give up because of that	treestar	Mar 2014	#25
Silver is making a prediction based upon historical trends. No time is	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#56
+1	treestar	Mar 2014	#96
Perhaps it is meant to put a little fire under our asses to GOTV!	VanillaRhapsody	Mar 2014	#26
It definitely Should Put a Big Ol Fire Under our Asses!	Cha	Mar 2014	#71
This is good news at this point in the year.	stopbush	Mar 2014	#27
I predict Nate Silver will be wrong	Politicalboi	Mar 2014	#28
Me, too.	GoCubsGo	Mar 2014	#36
I hope you're right. But you have to acknowledge that Nate's track record has been fairly	Number23	Mar 2014	#45
Nope. On crack.	Timez Squarez	Mar 2014	#72
No we don't have to accept Nate's shit poll. I am going to vote anyway. Fuck Nate!	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#110
I am doing to assume (for your sake) that you responded to the wrong person	Number23	Mar 2014	#148
we need to drive the GOTV effort. We can't assume anything.	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#60
Nate Silver is on crack, as usual.	Timez Squarez	Mar 2014	#70
^^^this^^^ will make some DU members sad I guess.	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#108
Nates not perfect	MFM008	Mar 2014	#32
If historical true, the final count at the voting booth with have nothing to do policy,	Sheepshank	Mar 2014	#33
i trust Nate's math, but it can change this far out.	JaneyVee	Mar 2014	#34
^^^ this^^^	TDale313	Mar 2014	#98
I find the responses in this thread to be way too freeperish.	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#107
Polls mean absolutely positively NOTHING right now. NOTHING.	RBInMaine	Mar 2014	#35
Worrying, but not immensely so.	Donald Ian Rankin	Mar 2014	#38
Democrats tend to have poor turnout when the presidency isn't at stake	davidn3600	Mar 2014	#42
Although when pissed enough, they can come out like in 2006	BumRushDaShow	Mar 2014	#47
Yeah, but Bush was president	davidn3600	Mar 2014	#58
Right and wrong. What turned Democrats out in 2006 was the behavior	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#64
Not lately	MFrohike	Mar 2014	#90
The ACA reality is just starting to dispel the Republican bullshit.	gulliver	Mar 2014	#51
Republicans are going to make it as hard as possible to vote, so don't count on	bluestate10	Mar 2014	#65
Any attempt to suppress should be immediately stopped, and then the perpertrator	Timez Squarez	Mar 2014	#73
what color is the sky on your planet?	Richardo	Mar 2014	#77
Well, if democrats stay at home and don't vote in November,	no_hypocrisy	Mar 2014	#52
...and some here are praising Nate. Message: Don't bother to vote.	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#114
Silver is the best I've ever seen at prognostication. With what I think will happen prior to	ballyhoo	Mar 2014	#61
The Rethuglian Party will be dead or set aside as a regional party	Timez Squarez	Mar 2014	#74
So...	butterfly77	Mar 2014	#63
Nate Silver is on crack, as usual.	Timez Squarez	Mar 2014	#67
As usual?	ForgoTheConsequence	Mar 2014	#83
...or the one before that?	Richardo	Mar 2014	#89
Let's hope Grimes' 0.5% lead in Kentucky holds nt	Pepper Cat	Mar 2014	#124
It will be hard but we can still hold onto it but we need to get our base out.	hrmjustin	Mar 2014	#75
If that happens, this country is doomed	liberal N proud	Mar 2014	#78
This message was self-deleted by its author	Cal33	Mar 2014	#112
Problem with Nate is	lancer78	Mar 2014	#93
much harder	Shivering Jemmy	Mar 2014	#97
A "SLIGHT" CHANCE!	Andy823	Mar 2014	#115
The good news is that Silver is only as a good as the polls he uses	theboss	Mar 2014	#125
How anyone can vote for a Republican after the stench of the Bewsh years is beyond me completely.	HughBeaumont	Mar 2014	#128
*****************"Slight Favorite in Race for Senate"********************	uponit7771	Mar 2014	#129
No matter Who says What	fredamae	Mar 2014	#133
Nate also ways polls this far out are not very predictive.	JoePhilly	Mar 2014	#137
Polls are not the only factor Nate considers, when making his forecast	Pepper Cat	Mar 2014	#142
I've read his book.	JoePhilly	Mar 2014	#143
Polls are not the only thing Nate bases his forecasts on	Pepper Cat	Mar 2014	#150
Polls combined with some basic common sense this far out are very predictive	Hippo_Tron	Mar 2014	#152
The Nate Silver who just hired a climate change denier for his new website?	KamaAina	Mar 2014	#153
Bwahahahahah ...nailed it!	L0oniX	Mar 2014	#155
Message auto-removed	Name removed	Mar 2014	#157

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