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hfojvt

(37,573 posts)
Thu Feb 13, 2014, 03:17 PM Feb 2014

House seats that can be flipped [View all]

Going by results in the last Presidential election, handily compiled by a Kossack http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections#

+% of Obama win, (-% of Romney win) in various Congressional districts

A - seats we ought to capture - total of 3

CA-21 +12
CA-31 +16
NJ-2 +8

B - seats with a numbers in our favor - total of 15

CA-10 +3
CO-6 +6
FL-13 +1
FL-27 +6
IA-3 +4
IL-13 +0.3
MN-2 +0.1
MN-3 +0.8
NJ-3 +5
NV-3 +0.8
NY-2 +4
NY-11 +4
NY-19 +6
VA-2 +1.5
WA-8 +1.6

C - Seats with a decent shot (that Romney barely won) - total of 10

CA-25 -2
FL-25 -2
NY-22 -0.4
NY-23 -1.2
OH-10 -2
PA-7 -2
PA-8 -0.1
VA-4 -1
VA-10 -1
WA-3 -2

28 seats where Republican incumbents should be vulnerable anyway. There are seats where Democratic incumbents are vulnerable as well. Perhaps those are worth noting, because we need to fight to hold them as well as fighting to win others

D - seats that are long shots, but perhaps doable - total of 41 (15 of them where Romney's margin was less than 5%)

CA-39 -4
CA-49 -6
CO-3 -6
FL-2 -5
FL-7 -5
FL-10 -7
FL-12 -9
FL-15 -7
FL-16 -9
IA-4 -8
IL-6 -8
IL-16 -8
KS-3 -10
MI-1 -9
MI-3 -7
MI-4 -8
MI-7 -3
MI-8 -3
MI-11 -5
NE-2 -7
NJ-4 -9
NJ-5 -3
NJ-7 -7
NJ-11 -5
NM-2 -7
NV-2 -8
OH-1 -6
OH-5 -9
OH-14 -3
OH-15 -5
OH-16 -8
PA-6 -3
PA-11 -9.5
PA-15 -3
PA-16 -6
VA-1 -8
VA-5 -7
WI-1 -4
WI-6 -7
WI-7 -3
WI-8 -4

57 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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k/r Dawson Leery Feb 2014 #1
Good information to have! herding cats Feb 2014 #2
I was gonna look that up hfojvt Feb 2014 #3
I was off by quite a bit. herding cats Feb 2014 #5
so we need a net of 18 hfojvt Feb 2014 #7
Yes, and that's an obtainable number. herding cats Feb 2014 #8
It might theoretically be obtainable Art_from_Ark Feb 2014 #40
Yes, my district is on the list! eissa Feb 2014 #4
Does he have a strong opponent? hfojvt Feb 2014 #6
Well, he at least has an opponent this time eissa Feb 2014 #10
That is a great site! blue14u Feb 2014 #30
MI-1 Benishek=asshole JNelson6563 Feb 2014 #9
in days of yore hfojvt Feb 2014 #19
Thanks for posting that list. MineralMan Feb 2014 #11
with no incumbent hfojvt Feb 2014 #12
If there is a very well-known DFL candidate who is popular in the MineralMan Feb 2014 #15
No GA seats on the list. Laelth Feb 2014 #13
Well Georgia does have 5 Democratic Reps (out of 14) hfojvt Feb 2014 #16
Spot on. Barrow has been vulnerable for some time. Laelth Feb 2014 #17
strong candidates in statewide races hfojvt Feb 2014 #20
Agreed. Laelth Feb 2014 #21
my previous list hfojvt Feb 2014 #14
K&R treestar Feb 2014 #18
WOW, hfojvt! A heart for you! calimary Feb 2014 #22
Don't forget the Clay Aiken race should be on this list. grattsl Feb 2014 #23
Thanks for this... ReRe Feb 2014 #24
if peeps want to keep their healthcare and get a job, they better make sure underthematrix Feb 2014 #25
^^^^THIS is what we should be focusing on....^^^ VanillaRhapsody Feb 2014 #26
I Do Not Buy The 'We're Doomed In the House' Line, Sir The Magistrate Feb 2014 #27
Total number of seats needed in the House = 17. Spitfire of ATJ Feb 2014 #28
Poop. None are in Texas. If we could get out the vote here we'd get bluer. Perry got his big land .. marble falls Feb 2014 #29
Nothing in MD! (nt) PosterChild Feb 2014 #31
Ca-31 just became a slam dunk with yesterday's anouncment of asshole Gary Miller's (R) retirment Brother Buzz Feb 2014 #32
Flip a District MadashellLynn Feb 2014 #33
I'd love to see Kline and Paulsen get the boot geardaddy Feb 2014 #34
We have to keep my district this year otherone Feb 2014 #35
This is a great blue14u Feb 2014 #36
The only reason CA 49 is even possible nadinbrzezinski Feb 2014 #37
Wow, it would be blue14u Feb 2014 #39
A dem just joined DU and they are running against him nadinbrzezinski Feb 2014 #41
I saw Debbie Wasserman in an blue14u Feb 2014 #42
Oh it is not my district nadinbrzezinski Feb 2014 #43
I can imagine....ha blue14u Feb 2014 #44
What turnout numbers are these based on? davidn3600 Feb 2014 #38
Aye, there's the rub Mister Ed Feb 2014 #45
true, the comparable election would be 2010 hfojvt Feb 2014 #46
Thanks! (And Remember.. You Can Use ACTBLUE To Donate To Them!) iamthebandfanman Feb 2014 #47
right now in Kansas hfojvt Feb 2014 #48
More races will have Democrats running tabbycat31 Feb 2014 #54
I live in NY 11 and we will give Grimm a race this time. hrmjustin Feb 2014 #49
Are you sure? hfojvt Feb 2014 #50
The reporter is related to a crime boss. I doubt he will do that again. hrmjustin Feb 2014 #52
GOTV 2014! Cali_Democrat Feb 2014 #51
Great information. Thanks! Squinch Feb 2014 #53
Posted to for a later look. 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2014 #55
Kick Warren DeMontague Feb 2014 #56
bump flamingdem Apr 2014 #57
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