It could be a landslide for Obama and Democrats

[Douglas Carpenter]

25. no President has won reelection with current levels of unemployment in 75 years. However I think

President Obama may very well be an exception. The Teaparty movement has pushed the Republicans into embracing positions so far out of the mainstream - particularly on Medicare that it might very well cause them to grab defeat from the hands of victory. Also the Republican Party will likely be nominating a candidate that most of them really don't like which is bound to have some effect on depressing the enthusiasm of their foot soldiers. Also, I remember how in 1994 it looked for awhile that Teddy was genuinely vulnerable. But a series of negative ads concentrating on Romney's roll in buying up businesses, laying off massive number of their staff and then selling these enterprises lead to Sen. Kennedy winning another landslide reelection. Still I don' think this election will be any cake walk for the Democrats. I see Intrade is now giving Romney a 63.1% chance of winning the Republican nomination - but only a 46% chance that the Republican nominee will win the general election - and a 51.9% that the Democratic nominee will win the general election. I think this is a pretty accurate estimation of the current possibilities as they exist at this time. Of course things could change in either direction by November. http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84328

RCP Poll Average
President Obama Job Approval
44.9 Approve / 49.3 Disapprove

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html