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davekriss

(4,608 posts)
18. Mr Coburn, meet Mr Bernoulli
Sun May 26, 2013, 11:28 AM
May 2013

A Bernoulli trial concerns the probability of an event happening now and going forward. The past has no influence on future probability.

Say you have flipped a coin 10 times and each time it came up heads. Wow, what are the odds of that happening? Very low, of course (0.097% to be precise). So the odds of turning up heads on toss 11 must be very low, right? Wrong. The odds on the next toss remain 50%. The next time a coin is tossed, it has a 50% probability of turning up heads vs. tails.

So what are the odds of Moore getting hit again? The same as they were the day before the last tornado.

And he's supposedly a doctor, too. calimary May 2013 #1
I'm sure that his election to the Senate has prevented the death TheDebbieDee May 2013 #2
And he doesn't understand statistics and probability? How'd he ever graduate? SharonAnn May 2013 #3
Bad news: you've got a broken leg. JBoy May 2013 #12
Pathetic ignorance, Senator! You think they call it Tornado Alley for nothing? dimbear May 2013 #4
He needs to look up LostOne4Ever May 2013 #5
unfortunately he's not the only one who has been spouting this nonsense. laundry_queen May 2013 #6
odds for a town hit at least 4 times? 2 yrs in a row as well? pansypoo53219 May 2013 #7
Mr Coburn, meet Mr Bernoulli davekriss May 2013 #18
You're being too kind to Coburn. Jim Lane May 2013 #21
It's thinking like that that's put this country in the mess it's in. Jim__ May 2013 #8
Sure, because the weather is intelligent kdmorris May 2013 #9
Depending what precise event he's discussing, he may well be right and his critics wrong. Donald Ian Rankin May 2013 #10
that isn't what he said dsc May 2013 #13
Is he wrong? Even in their heartland, aren't most places not hit by tornadoes most of the time? Donald Ian Rankin May 2013 #14
the statement clearly implied that it was now less than it was before dsc May 2013 #16
(see post 18) davekriss May 2013 #20
How old does he think the Earth is? Warren DeMontague May 2013 #11
How in the hell is this man a doctor??? Apophis May 2013 #15
Many people are this stupid. It explains why Roulette makes so much money..... Logical May 2013 #17
You'll need to tell that to the voters in his state. MineralMan May 2013 #19
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