General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Requests for unemployment aid drop to 3-1/2 year low [View all]phleshdef
(11,936 posts)"in stating that the unemployment rate has a correlation.."
Ok just stop talking right there and go back and read what was said. Obviously you didn't.
This post is about NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS not the unemployment rate. NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS are the claims made by people who just go laid off. Thus, it has nothing to do with people dropping off the rolls. When NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS go down, that means there were less layoffs than the previous month. PERIOD. Thats what it means. All this stuff about people dropping off the rolls has shit nothing to do with it.
However, you seem to THINK that the unemployment rate number is effected by people no longer being eligible. And you are completely wrong in that assumption. People dropping off the rolls has nothing to do with the unemployment rate calculation, as you just alluded to. Its ignorance to say it does. Its an indication that you have no clue how the unemployment rate is determined. The unemployment rate is determined by a mini-census performed on 60,000 households every month, on a rotating schedule. So even if people are dropping off the rolls, those people are still picked up in that huge sample.
The ONLY number that people dropping off the rolls effects is the number that will come out next week which tells us what the CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS are. Neither the new unemployment claims number nor the actual rate are effected by that. The new unemployment claims isn't relevant to it and the actual rate accounts for it. Period.
Go learn how this shit actually works before telling me I'm flat wrong.