Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

phleshdef

(11,936 posts)
26. If its not ignorance, then its outright lying. And you obviously don't understand a lot of things.
Thu Dec 15, 2011, 04:35 PM
Dec 2011

"in stating that the unemployment rate has a correlation.."

Ok just stop talking right there and go back and read what was said. Obviously you didn't.

This post is about NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS not the unemployment rate. NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS are the claims made by people who just go laid off. Thus, it has nothing to do with people dropping off the rolls. When NEW UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS go down, that means there were less layoffs than the previous month. PERIOD. Thats what it means. All this stuff about people dropping off the rolls has shit nothing to do with it.

However, you seem to THINK that the unemployment rate number is effected by people no longer being eligible. And you are completely wrong in that assumption. People dropping off the rolls has nothing to do with the unemployment rate calculation, as you just alluded to. Its ignorance to say it does. Its an indication that you have no clue how the unemployment rate is determined. The unemployment rate is determined by a mini-census performed on 60,000 households every month, on a rotating schedule. So even if people are dropping off the rolls, those people are still picked up in that huge sample.

The ONLY number that people dropping off the rolls effects is the number that will come out next week which tells us what the CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS are. Neither the new unemployment claims number nor the actual rate are effected by that. The new unemployment claims isn't relevant to it and the actual rate accounts for it. Period.

Go learn how this shit actually works before telling me I'm flat wrong.

This is good news! jaxx Dec 2011 #1
The only problem with this is that a large amount of people have dropped off the rolls BoWanZi Dec 2011 #2
Except thats not a problem at all because this number has nothing to do with that effect. phleshdef Dec 2011 #11
It's not ignorance michreject Dec 2011 #17
Actually it is dmallind Dec 2011 #18
If its not ignorance, then its outright lying. And you obviously don't understand a lot of things. phleshdef Dec 2011 #26
In your haste to reply michreject Dec 2011 #27
The number is lower than its been in 3.5 years. That means 3 holiday seasons have passed. phleshdef Dec 2011 #29
The 'holiday season' remark does not apply, as the calculation of a drop in 'new claims' is coalition_unwilling Dec 2011 #28
that is always the excuse for ignoring improvements in this number. MjolnirTime Dec 2011 #15
What part of 'filing new claims' did you miss? Ikonoklast Dec 2011 #19
No doubt because people who haven't had jobs in years have given up Sarah Ibarruri Dec 2011 #3
Giving up on looking for a job has ZERO to do with new unemployment claims. phleshdef Dec 2011 #7
If I am wrong, that is awesome news but I make a new UI claim every week BoWanZi Dec 2011 #9
The very first one you made during a recent layoff is the only new claim you made. phleshdef Dec 2011 #12
their sign-up has run out. duh. this is a BS statistic and proves nada. Tuesday Afternoon Dec 2011 #4
Do you understand what "new claims" means? phleshdef Dec 2011 #8
lol. yeah, got it. still a BS statistic as people are settling for underemployment because they have Tuesday Afternoon Dec 2011 #13
It sure seems that way, if I get a new job, I can see getting about 40% less BoWanZi Dec 2011 #14
also, it is the holiday season. so. duh. temps working skew the numbers. Tuesday Afternoon Dec 2011 #20
The underemployed are counted, too; part-timers looking for full-time work are also counted. Ikonoklast Dec 2011 #21
of course, it is up. it is the holidays. it will go down in January. after inventory. Tuesday Afternoon Dec 2011 #22
Once again, the OP was about *initial* jobless claims. That number is declining. Ikonoklast Dec 2011 #23
ok. consider me educated. thanks. Tuesday Afternoon Dec 2011 #24
um Skittles Dec 2011 #5
What bullshit. Odin2005 Dec 2011 #6
I know sharp_stick Dec 2011 #10
It's nice to see a thread like this that isn't unrecced into oblivion. MjolnirTime Dec 2011 #16
rebound Tuesday Afternoon Dec 2011 #25
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Requests for unemployment...»Reply #26