The nuclear risk of going to war with Iran [View all]

[LudwigPastorius]

It is possible that U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, coupled with Israel’s sustained bombing of Iranian political and economic targets, could cause the Iranian government to collapse, or agree to President Donald Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender.”

But it is more likely that Iran could race to build nuclear weapons. It could produce enough uranium for the cores of 10 bombs in a matter of days. It is unknown how long it would then take to turn the uranium into metal, shape it into weapons and then assemble it into one or more devices. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that it would take a year or more, but Iran could find shortcuts and do it as little as three to five weeks — as China did in 1964.

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Iran does not have to create a modern, sophisticated warhead that could fit on the tip of a missile. It could assemble a crude device that resembles the bomb the United States used to destroy Hiroshima 80 years ago. It could put that bomb in a plane, a truck or the belly of a cargo ship and smuggle it into the territory of a U.S. ally, or America itself.

Even if the attacks on Iran succeed — if Iranian centrifuges and uranium stocks are destroyed — nuclear risks will multiply.

The author goes on to explain that many countries will conclude that the only means of deterring an attack would be to possess a nuclear weapon, and that several European and Asian countries may pull out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a result of a (the) U.S. attack on Iran.

More here: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/iran-israel-us-nuclear-war-risks-rcna213653