General Discussion

pnwest

(3,296 posts)

104. I, for one, am with you.

Sat Oct 26, 2024, 09:19 PM

Oct 26

I don't know about the count, but I do believe Kamala Harris will win, by a HUGE and undisputable margin. I only recently even allowed myself to even contemplate a trump win. But in my heart of hearts, I don't think that will happen. Bookmarking to see how close you are!

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My ten days out predicion [View all] ColinC Oct 26 OP

? SWBTATTReg Oct 26 #1

Technical difficulties sorry ColinC Oct 26 #2

Okay, I'll bite RidinWithHarris Oct 26 #3

You might be surprised ColinC Oct 26 #9

Gut? Prescience? Dreaming? Data? Tweedy Oct 26 #67

Well, that's...ambitious. TwilightZone Oct 26 #4

I mean i realize im grasping way past the limb ColinC Oct 26 #6

Thanks! SWBTATTReg Oct 26 #5

Thanks! If you had to choose one which do you think is most likely? ColinC Oct 26 #7

West Virginia or Tenn. I'm just shooting too from the hip too w/ these guesses, being that i have family in TN, SWBTATTReg Oct 26 #11

Between the two i would say TN is most likely, but ColinC Oct 26 #13

Anecdotal I know, but... WVGal1963 Oct 26 #64

Same here in Texas, just south of Houston. Susan Calvin Oct 26 #75

Oklahoma, Nebraska and Kansas Tweedy Oct 26 #68

Looks good to me DiverDave Oct 26 #8

Oh they will ColinC Oct 26 #10

You can't help but hear them. DiverDave Oct 26 #18

Oh let 'em scream! calimary Oct 26 #78

Lapsang Souchong? DiverDave Oct 26 #92

That's actually what I brewed this morning! calimary Oct 26 #93

Wow. DiverDave Oct 26 #96

Lol Florida Dem Oct 26 #12

Ive got a feeling about Montana ColinC Nov 2 #121

Any chance of Iowa voting blue was 12 years ago. rsdsharp Oct 26 #14

Prepare to be shocked 😉 ColinC Oct 26 #17

I fucking LIVE here. Not gonna happen. rsdsharp Oct 26 #24

Prepare to be shocked. ColinC Oct 26 #25

I will come back in here after Election Day Polybius Oct 26 #98

I will. If i am horribly wrong though, you might not hear from me for a couple days ColinC Oct 26 #101

I hear ya Polybius Oct 26 #106

Oof even if that happens i might go in hiding for a while ColinC Oct 26 #112

I think we'll pick up the House, but we'll have a small majority Polybius Oct 26 #115

Yeah if she performs poorly or modestly by any measure -even if she wins ColinC Oct 26 #117

Question ColinC Oct 26 #26

No, that was then, this is now. In 2016 we were still a swing state. rsdsharp Oct 26 #52

Trump won by way more than the polls predicted ColinC Oct 26 #55

I. accept the bet, but answer me this. I live in the largest TV market in the state. rsdsharp Oct 26 #59

Yay! To answer your question: "Swing state" is relative ColinC Oct 26 #61

For our house personally? We had somebody running for state senator stop by a couple of times. rsdsharp Oct 26 #66

This message was self-deleted by its author ColinC Oct 26 #62

C'mon, someone pulls a prediction out of their bum about your state and guarantees it will happen because...reasons. Xavier Breath Oct 26 #34

Crazy and delusional are a distinction without a difference ColinC Oct 26 #40

'Delusional' just sounds better to the ear. Xavier Breath Oct 26 #43

Anyday! Now if im right, what will you call me? ColinC Oct 26 #44

Exalted Grand Poobah of Election Prognostication. Xavier Breath Oct 26 #47

Noice 😎 ColinC Oct 26 #48

Well, I was shocked! Not by Iowa, that was a foregone conclusion. rsdsharp Nov 6 #124

Oh boy do have some eating of words to do ColinC Nov 6 #125

Iowa is the next closest state in the polling averages after the 7 swing states Wiz Imp Oct 26 #21

Not gonna happen. There's an outside chance we get rid of Nunn and Miller-Meeks in Congress, rsdsharp Oct 26 #22

This message was self-deleted by its author Wiz Imp Oct 26 #53

Agreed generally ColinC Oct 26 #27

hope springs bcbink Oct 26 #15

I just thought right now Indiana could be a wildcard ColinC Oct 26 #28

I appreciate your optimism lapfog_1 Oct 26 #16

I would like to place a Gentleman's bet ColinC Oct 26 #20

Obama gave McCain a drubbing by seven points - and only won 365 FBaggins Oct 26 #19

Additionally Biden won by 4 points and barely came up on top in the EC ColinC Oct 26 #23

Mostly white high school educated men lapfog_1 Oct 26 #35

I wouldn't say that Biden barely won the EC. Wiz Imp Oct 26 #37

Yeah those 4 decisive states though represented a sliver ColinC Oct 26 #42

Right. The cumulative difference in those 4 states was a bit over 123,000. Wiz Imp Oct 26 #56

Which is why the United States will surely abolish the elctoral college in the next year. Right? ColinC Oct 26 #58

This message was self-deleted by its author Wiz Imp Oct 26 #60

Yeah, the last Democrat to top Clinton's 379 total was Lyndon Johnson way back in 1964 with 486 Wiz Imp Oct 26 #31

We're due ColinC Oct 26 #33

This message was self-deleted by its author Wiz Imp Oct 26 #38

There are a lot of Repukes who aren't going to vote for Chump again FakeNoose Oct 26 #107

Yeah. I think the most likely outcome is Harris ends up with an EV total close to Bidens Wiz Imp Oct 26 #111

I like your thinking! leftieNanner Oct 26 #29

I wish !!!!!! Trueblue1968 Oct 26 #30

Ohio Texas Iowa and Florida ??? underpants Oct 26 #32

I can't speak for the other states, I'm not in any of those. Xavier Breath Oct 26 #36

TX and FL? I certainly wish it comes to pass Bristlecone Oct 26 #39

Im going to say no gay texan Oct 26 #41

I wouldn't be surprised. ._. Oct 26 #45

I think my current map is the likelier scenario Sympthsical Oct 26 #46

Thanks! Yeah mines not final either ColinC Oct 26 #49

You do realize PA has only voted once in the last 40 yrs for the gqp prez candidate...it will be blue again PortTack Oct 26 #74

Just how I'm divining the polls at the moment Sympthsical Oct 26 #81

And, you are definitely entitled to your opinion. I don't look at polls, but at historical trends, population shifts PortTack Oct 26 #85

We'll see what we see on Nov. 5th Sympthsical Oct 26 #86

So Nate Cohn recently said -quite blatantly, that polling firms are outright manipulating results to make it look tied ColinC Nov 2 #122

We'll see what we see Sympthsical Nov 2 #123

RSO rso Oct 26 #79

Pennsylvania will go blue, mark it down FakeNoose Oct 26 #100

I like your thinking. MiKenMi33 Oct 26 #50

LOL Prairie Gates Oct 26 #51

You're crazy, because nobody will know who won on the morning of the 6th. elocs Oct 26 #54

I like your thinking, but it's probably going to be a bit less than that. patphil Oct 26 #57

Agreed, except for Ohio, and maybe Iowa. Chasing Dreams Oct 26 #63

No to Ohio and Iowa but the rest are definitely possible. Elessar Zappa Oct 26 #65

The more i think about it im wavering on those. ColinC Oct 26 #72

That map would be so sweet and if it's close to those electoral votes we will finally get rid of the orange monster kimbutgar Oct 26 #69

I'll wager she doesn't perform that well, but would happy if you're right! Win win! Lucky Luciano Oct 26 #70

Wonderful thought DownriverDem Oct 26 #71

If Trump lost all 50 states, Mr.Bill Oct 26 #73

maybe a bit optimistic ramapo Oct 26 #76

RSO rso Oct 26 #77

I dont just think this will happen ColinC Oct 26 #84

TX - I don't think so TBF Oct 26 #80

Even less red, I hope..... joanbarnes Oct 26 #82

Even less red we hope. joanbarnes Oct 26 #83

Not out of the question. marble falls Oct 26 #87

Trump is toast ThePartyThatListens Oct 26 #88

I hope you're correct. I've been thinking all along it's going to be a blowout of epic proportions. Vinca Oct 26 #89

I hope you are right but I don't think it will be even close to that. Florida, Ohio doc03 Oct 26 #90

What does the tan mean? Jeebo Oct 26 #91

Bold. But very possible. lees1975 Oct 26 #94

Beto O Rourke is Texas' Stacy Abrams ColinC Oct 26 #95

What are the tan ones? Polybius Oct 26 #97

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 26 #113

Well Hello. Did you take a wrong turn? GP6971 Oct 26 #114

Damn, I have to check my replies a little faster Polybius Oct 26 #116

They're gone. GP6971 Oct 26 #118

I'd lo-o-o-ove to see Texas and Florida go blue FakeNoose Oct 26 #99

what are you on Skittles Oct 26 #102

This is about what I'm expecting as well. IrishAfricanAmerican Oct 26 #103

I, for one, am with you. pnwest Oct 26 #104

That would be glorious. Imagine accomplishing that with a 3-month campaign. ecstatic Oct 26 #105

I's say this is a dream scenario but, LogDog75 Oct 26 #108

290 could happen Polybius Oct 27 #119

Highly unlikely... LudwigPastorius Oct 26 #109

Ill take it without Ohio and Iowa but if the stars align who knows Tribetime Oct 26 #110

The new Iowa poll just dropped. Harris has taken the lead among likely voters 47-44%! rsdsharp Nov 2 #120