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Quixote1818

(30,389 posts)

13. His keys are often wrong if you count the popular vote

Reply to Frank D. Lincoln (Original post)

Sun Sep 29, 2024, 05:43 PM

Sep 29

I think he's onto something with voter trends near election day but the electoral college makes his keys almost irrelevant. What if Texas had been a blue state in 2016? Trump would have lost. Subtle shifts in voter trends in current swing states could ruin his predictions. He's been lucky several swing states have worked in his favor as the popular vote has shifted to the left.

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13 replies

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Which do you trust more: Polls or Allan Lichtman's Keys? [View all] Frank D. Lincoln Sep 29 OP

We need another poll similiar to this sky_masterson Sep 29 #1

I voted other because I believe displacedvermoter Sep 29 #2

Neither, they are both political entertainment... getagrip_already Sep 29 #3

I like following the betting markets Poiuyt Sep 29 #4

I agree. Scruffy1 Sep 29 #6

Some markets had Trump at 90% on election day. They predicted a GOP wave in 2022. TwilightZone Sep 29 #7

The keys ClimateHawk Sep 29 #5

Lichtman. tavernier Sep 29 #8

This. Al Gore won, when the votes got counted. The Supreme Court had no business interfering. Bastards all. mucholderthandirt Sep 29 #10

RSO rso Sep 29 #9

That does make me feel more confident Frank D. Lincoln Sep 29 #11

There are other countries that are hell bent on turning the foreign policy / military keys ecstatic Sep 29 #12

His keys are often wrong if you count the popular vote Quixote1818 Sep 29 #13