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TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)
7. Some markets had Trump at 90% on election day. They predicted a GOP wave in 2022.
Sun Sep 29, 2024, 08:50 AM
Sep 29

They basically just swing with the news. They aren't any more predictive than anything else (in some cases, they're decidedly worse).

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/16/how-good-are-election-prediction-markets/

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