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babylonsister

(171,481 posts) Thu Sep 19, 2024, 07:48 AM Sep 19

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Data Scientist Who Correctly Predicted 2020 Election Now Betting on 'Landslide' Harris Win [View all]

Data Scientist Who Correctly Predicted 2020 Election Now Betting on ‘Landslide’ Harris Win
by Carl Gibson | September 19, 2024 - 6:40am

— from Alternet

Data scientist Thomas Miller of Northwestern University correctly predicted the 2020 Electoral College map, with the exception of Georgia. He also accurately forecasted Georgia's two Democratic U.S. senators, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, defeating then-incumbents Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.

Now, he's anticipating that Vice President Kamala Harris will not only defeat former President Donald Trump in November, but will do so by a significant margin. Fortune reported that Miller is predicting that Harris' electoral map may resemble the 1964 map in which President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-Arizona) with a whopping 486 electoral votes, or President Bill Clinton's 1996 victory over Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kansas), in which he secured 379 electoral votes.

"It’s gone from a drastic landslide in Trump’s direction to a drastic landslide for Harris," Miller said of his forecasting model

.

Even prior to the June debate between Trump and President Joe Biden — which was widely viewed as the catalyst for Biden's eventual exit from the 2024 race — Miller's metrics predicted a staggering defeat for Biden. He forecasted that Trump could win as many as 400 Electoral College votes prior to Biden's disastrous debate performance, which went as high as nearly 500 electoral votes.

But after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris — prompting a surge of excitement from the Democratic base and hundreds of millions of dollars in new fundraising — the odds flipped in the vice president's favor in just a few weeks. Despite Trump catching up to Harris in the wake of the Democratic National Convention and getting back into a virtual tie with the vice president, Harris blew past him once again after last week's debate, which was viewed by 67 million Americans.

"Within a day after the candidates left the podium, Harris had jumped to exactly over 400 electoral votes," Fortune's Shawn Tully wrote. "The Harris endorsement from Taylor Swift, secured the day of the debate, probably helped sink Trump’s chances, according to Miller. Since then, Harris has maintained [her] 400-plus vote total."

more...
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/carl-gibson/111600/data-scientist-who-correctly-predicted-2020-election-now-betting-on-landslide-harris-win

71 replies

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Data Scientist Who Correctly Predicted 2020 Election Now Betting on 'Landslide' Harris Win [View all] babylonsister Sep 19 OP

Aren't there a lot of blowing past and huge swings in this model? bullimiami Sep 19 #1

I noticed a tone of breathless hyperbole throughout. yardwork Sep 19 #4

thats what i was thinking jcgoldie Sep 19 #27

Calls for a song GreenWave Sep 19 #2

Americans don't want no stinking, lying kristofascist republican-russian a-holes BoRaGard Sep 19 #3

It's a real shame all Americans don't see him as a Putin employee. KS Toronado Sep 19 #8

Americans would see him as a Putin asset if the conservative press didn't put their thumb on the scale for him meow2u3 Sep 19 #34

So very true! KS Toronado Sep 19 #41

Women will win this for Kamala Freddie Sep 19 #5

Two is only the tip of the iceberg. n/t rzemanfl Sep 19 #11

In that case I can stay home. NT mahatmakanejeeves Sep 19 #33

I certainly hope you won't stay home. Quiet Em Sep 19 #59

I'm no data scientist, PatSeg Sep 19 #6

+1. n/t rzemanfl Sep 19 #10

It's like the putin puppets don't even care about no stinking election.... erronis Sep 19 #32

Ha, ha, ha!!! PatSeg Sep 20 #69

Me too - since the beginning of the year I've said it's a "Blue Tsunami" FakeNoose Sep 19 #35

"...it will be the final end to Chump's miserable career as failed politician..." Wednesdays Sep 19 #44

He'll lose most of his followers after November FakeNoose Sep 19 #45

Oh yes, a very final end PatSeg Sep 20 #70

I agree. Everyone needs to vote for it to happen. LiberalFighter Sep 19 #65

trump will claim that he won, regardless of the size of Kamala's victory. mwb970 Sep 19 #7

I like that he's using betting trends to base his data model. ihaveaquestion Sep 19 #9

Wall Street doesn't just see a Hillary win, it sees a landslide mahatmakanejeeves Sep 19 #12

Some keep bringing up Hillary while conveniently ignoring what Comey did. Without a doubt Hillary would have won in JohnSJ Sep 19 #21

And they keep ignoring what we now know about TFG, but didn't know then. nt Trueblue Texan Sep 19 #24

Groundloop in 2016: "No way in hell is tRump beating Hillary" (to be honest she had 3 MILLION more votes, HOWEVER....) groundloop Sep 19 #22

That's enough bad news to give Dumpster fire a stroke. Omnipresent Sep 19 #13

379 sounds just about right to me. IrishAfricanAmerican Sep 19 #14

That would mean all Biden's States plus Tribetime Sep 19 #15

That would mean Obama's states plus.. lindysalsagal Sep 19 #56

I would love to see Texas blue but I'm skeptical - TBF Sep 19 #63

If florida and or texas go blue i'm drinking a double shot Tribetime Sep 19 #64

I'll absolutely join you in that! nt TBF Sep 19 #68

Don't believe that landslide stuff, encourage everyone to vote!!!! Clouds Passing Sep 19 #16

Jeez... PCIntern Sep 19 #66

Just a friendly reminder Clouds Passing Sep 20 #71

Let's take comfort but not get cocky. viva la Sep 19 #17

These predictions only work with trump as the candidate. I can't be the only one who's worried that these assa**ination rainin Sep 19 #18

Not a chance FakeNoose Sep 19 #36

If you're not the only one worried that the repubs are plotting to remove Trump you should be onenote Sep 19 #42

Really? You're so confident that you'll call my concern "ridiculous". You must have an inside scoop. rainin Sep 19 #55

I'll tell you what won't happen: Trump won't be assassinated by folks who want him replaced by Vance. onenote Sep 19 #57

My interest in engaging with you is minimal. I don't usually engage with people who talk in absolutes rainin Sep 19 #60

Amber Nicole Thurman and her son are going along as the American people vote this fall. Botany Sep 19 #19

With the republican candidate like trump it should be like the LBJ/goldwater election, but unless pro-choice JohnSJ Sep 19 #20

What about Allan Lichtman? rogerballard Sep 19 #23

I hate to keep sounding like Debbie Downer COL Mustard Sep 19 #25

This is nice to hear, but we still have to work our asses off to make it happen. Trueblue Texan Sep 19 #26

forgive the ocd tsSleepyTimeDwnSout Sep 19 #28

on that theme tsSleepyTimeDwnSout Sep 19 #30

Put a space between them. NT mahatmakanejeeves Sep 19 #61

thx! tsSleepyTimeDwnSout Sep 19 #62

Yep - proofreading is bad on the printed news sheets ... but even worse on the news websites FakeNoose Sep 19 #37

400+ means winning Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and probably Texas Renew Deal Sep 19 #29

Biden got 306 dsc Sep 19 #31

It could happen if we GOTV. Wednesdays Sep 19 #38

I want to wake up on November 6th to a totally blue map. LastLiberal in PalmSprings Sep 19 #39

Yah, this takes me back to going to bed with Hillary winning, and then waking up a kennedy Sep 19 #48

When did Regan run against McGovern? sarisataka Sep 19 #50

Reagan beat Mondale in 1984, Nixon beat McGovern in 1972 andym Sep 19 #52

Harris' electoral map may resemble the 1964 map in which President Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater Botany Sep 19 #40

Holy moly! That's a lot of blue! nt babylonsister Sep 19 #43

Why stop there? sarisataka Sep 19 #51

Looking for a proven way to snatch Defeat from the jaws of Victory? Try OverConfidence! struggle4progress Sep 19 #46

The closer we get to the election sarisataka Sep 19 #47

As I've mentioned before......I just want a crushing so there is NO doubt she won. a kennedy Sep 19 #49

This is our chance to make up for lost time bucolic_frolic Sep 19 #53

Would that it be so. nt KPN Sep 19 #54

I also predicted Biden winning in 2020 Jose Garcia Sep 19 #58

This guy is using PredictIt, a betting site, as the data basis for his modeling? LudwigPastorius Sep 19 #67