General Discussion

Indykatie

(3,833 posts)

12. This is Excellent News if it's Based on "Likely Voters"

Sun Sep 15, 2024, 09:49 AM

Sep 15

I say that because all the pollsters will end up undercounting "likely voters". They will miss all the newly registered voters and none of the enthusiasm Dems have for the Harris/Walz ticket. Pollsters have also missed the Post Dobbs effect that has been evident in the mid-term and special elections held since Dobbs. Democrats have overperformed in every one of those elections even the ones in deep red districts where they lost.

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CNN reporting an ABC News Poll: Harris up by 6 Points [View all] Pototan Sep 15 OP

god do I hate those 'reminders' bigtree Sep 15 #1

I think it might be a "good luck" thing. SleeplessinSoCal Sep 15 #38

Also: Sky Jewels Sep 15 #41

It is good news because Kamala's lead was narrowing before the debate. Doodley Sep 15 #2

I agree kansasobama Sep 15 #5

With shithole, his comrades and his cult........................ Lovie777 Sep 15 #3

Here is the link kansasobama Sep 15 #4

what's the margin of error? returnee Sep 15 #6

+/-2% MOE Fiendish Thingy Sep 15 #11

I found this study of polls to be interesting Farmer-Rick Sep 15 #21

Misinterpretation of Confidence Intervals BlueInID Sep 15 #28

Yeah, I know Farmer-Rick Sep 15 #55

It's only a "slight" lead because we are Democrats. 6pts for an R is a nuclear lead. Maru Kitteh Sep 15 #7

yay America BoRaGard Sep 15 #8

Odd that the 2% MOE is unchanged between Adults/RVs/LVs Fiendish Thingy Sep 15 #9

Most polls shift to "likely" voters after Labor Day, so probably...nt Wounded Bear Sep 15 #10

This is Excellent News if it's Based on "Likely Voters" Indykatie Sep 15 #12

MSM will focus on the least favorable poll kansasobama Sep 15 #13

Aha, just as I expected kansasobama Sep 15 #22

Is there a link to polls in the key battleground states? Martin Eden Sep 15 #14

Hillary won the PV by 2.3% and lost the ECV Pototan Sep 15 #17

I guess I don't hold our "founding fathers" in such high regard as many people. groundloop Sep 15 #30

In the late 18th century, it was necessary for actual Electors to convene. Martin Eden Sep 15 #35

I was discussing that with a person this morning Pototan Sep 15 #40

It's amazing to me that someone who tried to Emile Sep 15 #15

My guess is, he's not. I don't trust the pollsters, nor their methods. mucholderthandirt Sep 15 #16

total agreement et tu Sep 15 #18

Inside the cult, Trump is Jesus Johonny Sep 15 #32

The polls are definitely trending in the right direction Buckeyeblue Sep 15 #19

Speculators on predictit.org disagree William Seger Sep 15 #20

? What does your chart say? Emile Sep 15 #24

Those are "yes" share prices, Harris on top, currently $0.57 to $0.47 William Seger Sep 15 #34

I was probably too brief William Seger Sep 15 #50

RCP odds before ABC poll Pototan Sep 15 #25

Six point lead for Trump, the MSM, would call insurmountable. We know who they are in the tank for AZLD4Candidate Sep 15 #23

Well, to be fair Pototan Sep 15 #29

I think Kamala's poll numbers will keep going up ... ificandream Sep 15 #26

That is my take also, that Kamala's numbers won't go backwards crud Sep 15 #27

"I'll take my chances in the swing states" - TBF Sep 15 #31

This has nothing to do with the popular vote *determining* the presidency, but it does *strongly correlate* RidinWithHarris Sep 15 #42

Correlation does not imply causation. nt TBF Sep 15 #43

And? RidinWithHarris Sep 15 #44

You posted your argument relying on correlation - TBF Sep 15 #45

If the subject is polling, the subject is automatically correlation, not causation RidinWithHarris Sep 15 #47

Talk about games TBF Sep 15 #48

Thanks... RidinWithHarris Sep 15 #49

no problem, TBF Sep 22 #58

6% means she would win rhe EC obamanut2012 Sep 15 #51

It's a mistake to overestimate what people know (or ought to know.) Oopsie Daisy Sep 15 #33

And remember this poll is from a compromised rightwing msm. ananda Sep 15 #36

If you're a Democrat, specifically the Democratic candidate for president . . . peggysue2 Sep 15 #37

Listen we DO have work to do but edisdead Sep 15 #39

In sure CNN couched it angrychair Sep 15 #46

Time for another Trump distraction C_U_L8R Sep 15 #52

As many of these reliable polls as there are .. VMA131Marine Sep 15 #53

"...racism is a major factor but for so many???" J_William_Ryan Sep 15 #54

This polling makes me smile LetMyPeopleVote Sep 15 #56

That's very good considering the margin of error is only 2% iemanja Sep 15 #57