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lindysalsagal

(22,394 posts)
Tue Sep 3, 2024, 01:27 PM Sep 2024

Harris up .4 in PA: Latest poll average [View all]

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/pennsylvania

The poll that brings it down is Trafalgar, (Harris down 4) and it noted the response from non-whites was 20%.

But nationally, white voters make up only 69% of the electorate. I doubt that PA is far from that mark.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/10/26/what-the-2020-electorate-looks-like-by-party-race-and-ethnicity-age-education-and-religion/

So, this Trafalgar poll is skewed to the republicans, to the tune of 5-10 or more points.



If you remove the trafalgar poll, and average the other 4, Harris is up 2 points.
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She should be up by at least 10 Tennessee Hillbilly Sep 2024 #1
Because in between Philly & Pittsburgh is Alabama. oldsoftie Sep 2024 #2
Yep, with State College area being a little oasis mvd Sep 2024 #5
Drive home the policies that ARE bringing jobs BACK to the US oldsoftie Sep 2024 #17
I do hope President Obama will be campaigning in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh Jack Valentino Sep 2024 #20
or PENNSYLTUCKY! MyOwnPeace Sep 2024 #8
Another I've heard! nt oldsoftie Sep 2024 #16
Polls can account for the discrepency you point out by doubling the weight on the category that was undersampled. nt DontBelieveEastisEas Sep 2024 #3
But not if their turnout model is also skewed getagrip_already Sep 2024 #6
Yes. Black women registrations are through the roof. We have lots of female black voters in PA. lindysalsagal Sep 2024 #9
TSF is spending more money in Pa. gab13by13 Sep 2024 #4
Another post on DU showed the PA ad buys by the two campaigns are almost equal Fiendish Thingy Sep 2024 #10
Did that comparison include PACs? DontBelieveEastisEas Sep 2024 #13
Yes. Fiendish Thingy Sep 2024 #14
I am extremely worried about PA this year.. DemocratInPa Sep 2024 #7
Sorry, but there is a massive effort by Democrats to GOTV, and as far JohnSJ Sep 2024 #11
Oh, they're not getting the vote out in PA, eh? BannonsLiver Sep 2024 #12
There is some screwy stuff going on maxrandb Sep 2024 #15
Slotkin up 6 or 7 in MI Johnny2X2X Sep 2024 #18
Everything I see lately for Michigan shows Harris up a couple points over Trump, Jack Valentino Sep 2024 #21
Looking good, and we can take Trafalgar with a barrel of salt... Jack Valentino Sep 2024 #19
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