Virginia election projections [View all]
Before I begin, I want to let the readers know we have a live model on election night down to the precinct level for Virginia this year, designed by Jack Kersting. Make sure you spend your election night with us, here’s the link to our results page!
This is my fourth time predicting state legislative elections here in Virginia, and my sixth year in a row predicting state legislative elections in general. It’s no secret that Virginia elections are my bread and butter, and I’ve felt confident throughout the year on how well my predictions will fare. In 2017, my first year, I got 96/100 House seats right, in 2019 I got 99/100 House seats and 38/40 Senate seats right, and in 2021 I circled back to getting another 96/100 seats right in the House. This year, I think that at least 97 of these ratings for the House and 38 for the Senate will have determined the winner.
Our team’s been working hard at this. Our editor, Allie Geier, has fine-tuned the article you’re reading. Our GIS team, Aidan Howard and cinyc9, have crunched data from 2019 to 2022 down to the precinct level. Jackson Martin, our Chief Oddsmaker, has set up our Bang for Your Buck model helping subscribers to our Substack figure out where they should be spending their money this year in Virginia. Jack Kersting, our Data Visualist and Oddsmaker, has set up a magnificent forecast page and a results page for tomorrow night featuring a model which indicates the candidate favored to win each district, as well as each chamber, based on the precinct results we’ll be gathering. Chris Leonchik, our campaign finance analyst, has crunched the campaign finance numbers where needed. Last but not least, our intern, Elliot Li, has been taking care of miscellaneous tasks and keeping us up to date.
https://cnalysis.com/articles/our-final-virginia-2023-ratings/
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