Voters are worried mainly about the economy. Our fortunes will rise and fall based on how people feel their immediate, tangible lives are going come November. There is some periphery - the Ukraine war, the personalities of the politicians involved, etc. But how people are doing is what's going to determine if they show up and what lever they pull.
Anecdotal, but I can honestly say I never ever hear anyone care or talk about January 6th outside of social media bubbles, Twitter, and news junkies who watch a lot of cable news. It never comes up in conversation. Mark Meadows, Mike Lee. I have never had those names uttered to me by a person outside of the political internet.
The country's massively partisan. Republicans won't care, and the amount of movement you'll see in independents probably won't be some massive shift. Will January 6th hearings really get people who weren't going to vote suddenly running to the polls? Or will people perceive it as a partisan slapfight that has no bearing on their everyday?
I don't see it mattering or being this huge deal. The people who live for news and discussion about it were already going to vote. Watching January 6th discussion is like watching fans of Better Call Saul. The new season premiering is a big deal and talked about on just about every television related website around. Discussion about the premiere is literally everywhere I frequent online.
People who don't watch the show? They do not care. January 6th will go similarly, I think. Maybe I'm wrong. I don't think I am.