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Sat Oct 27, 2012, 11:00 PM

Nate Silver [View all]

Five Thirty Eight
October 27, 2012, 5:16 PM

October 26 State Poll Averages Usually call Election Right

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model has found the past several days of battleground state polling to be reasonably strong for Barack Obama, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing as a result. The intuition behind this ought to be very simple: Mr. Obama is maintaining leads in the polls in Ohio and other states that are sufficient for him to win 270 electoral votes.

Friday featured a large volume of swing state polling, including three polls of Ohio, each of which showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins ranging from two to four percentage points.


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