Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search


(118,701 posts)
6. Almost nobody really wants a nuclear war; and that will be as true of Russians
Mon Mar 14, 2022, 12:10 AM
Mar 2022

as anyone else anywhere else

Even among ardent nationalists of any stripe, you will find many who understand that a certain informed realism is essential to advancing their own interests and their own country's interests: so it will be reasonable to expect that there exist many patriotic Russians who will recoil with horror from the prospect of nuclear exchanges

Russian politics is likely to be as complicated as politics anywhere -- and that means (among other things) that actual power will not always follow the official organization charts. To use various nuclear weapons, will require various levels of consent and action from different people, regardless of the official power structure: Putin doesn't transport, aim, and fire them himself

Unofficial contacts are important in the modern world; people can have personal friends that are not official friends; and this matters

I do not think we can predict the future; but I think we can profitably play the probabilities, as long as we update our estimates as frequently and accurately as we can

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Poll -- A friend asked me...»Reply #6