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Response to C Moon (Original post)

Mon Nov 1, 2021, 10:52 PM

1. The race likely did tighten...

 

But those same polls you dismiss also showed Newsom opening up a sizable lead late (well, no on recall opening a lead). It's likely the fact the polls narrowed that led to Newsom's big win because it turned voters on to the idea that Larry Elder may actually become governor.

The problem with comparing a story from July, to the results we saw in September, is that we're not looking at a situation where there's still months left in the campaign.

The polls shifted dramatically in the final weeks of the California recall:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/ca/2021-california-governor-recall-election-7360.html

Unfortunately, in Virginia, they've narrowed - not worked in McAuliffe's favor. In fact, McAuliffe is now trailing in every recent poll:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/va/virginia_governor_youngkin_vs_mcauliffe-7373.html

He's likely going to lose.

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