Did anyone pick up on this Nate Silver tweet? Hello!

[ProSense]

6. Mason-Dixon 2008

First, here is Nate Silver on the Mason-Dixon Florida poll:

The Florida poll, which was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a good polling firm, showed Mr. Romney with a lead and was a helpful reminder of this. Mr. Obama probably does not trail in Florida by seven points. Some other polls published this week showed him with a small lead there. But there is reason to think that he has become the underdog, since Mr. Obama led in Florida by two or three points before the debates and because Mr. Romney’s bounce since then has been a little larger than that. In fact, the FiveThirtyEight forecast had flipped to calling Mr. Romney a slight favorite in Florida a couple of days ago.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/oct-11-obamas-swing-state-firewall-has-brittle-foundation

This is not acceptable. The polling firm may be "good," but the poll is bunk!

The poll shows Romney winning Hispanics 46 to 44, which is similar to the lead they gave McCain in October 2008.

Mason-Dixon Florida Poll: October 20 through October 21, 2008

<...>

Republican John McCain has moved narrowly ahead of Democrat Barack Obama in Florida. Statewide, 46% of voters currently support McCain, while 45% back Obama, 2% are for other candidates and 7% remain undecided. Obama held a similarly slim 48%-46% lead two weeks ago.

<...>

In the key Tampa Bay region, McCain now has a 47%-44% lead, reversing Obama’s 48%-44% advantage from early October. The other regions of the state continue to follow their historical patterns, with Obama holding a wide 58%-32% lead in Southeast Florida and McCain running ahead in North Florida (56%-35%), Central Florida (53%-39%) and Southwest Florida (54%-38%).

Obama continues to run stronger among Democrats, women, those under 35, blacks and those who have never served in the military, while McCain is stronger with men, Republicans, those over 65, whites and military veterans. Obama has a 47%-41% lead among independent voters, while McCain has a 47%-44% among Hispanic & Cuban voters.

McCain still has a higher favorable rating with Florida voters than Obama (51%-49%), while Obama’s negatives are a bit higher than McCain’s (37%-33%).

- more -

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081022_Fla_Mason-Dixon.pdf

Other current polling.

Florida Poll: Obama 49, Romney 45

A new University of North Florida poll conducted from October 1 to October 10 shows President Obama with a four point lead over Mitt Romney, 49 percent to 45 percent.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/florida-poll-obama-49-romney-45

Poll: Hispanics in Florida favor President Barack Obama over Mitt Romney, 61-31

The Hispanic support mirrors other Florida surveys that show Obama with a large lead among this crucial and growing segment of the Florida electorate.

By Marc Caputo

Hispanic voters in Florida heavily favor President Obama, strongly back his immigration positions and are highly enthusiastic about voting...according to the survey of 400 registered Florida Hispanics conducted by Latino Decisions for America’s Voice, a group that advocates for liberal immigration policies.

Obama pulls 61 percent Hispanic support compared to 31 percent for Republican Mitt Romney, the poll showed....this 30-point margin is the largest Obama lead to date.

<...>

But the number of Republican Hispanics has only grown 12 percent, while the number of Democratic Hispanics have increased 60 percent and no-party-affiliation Hispanic voters increased 50 percent. NPA Hispanics now outnumber Republican Hispanics in Florida.

And Hispanics are energized about voting as well, with 70 percent saying their “very enthusiastic” about voting...That’s welcome news to the Obama campaign, which has watched its support slip among non-white Hispanic whites. Obama lost the white vote 42-56 percent to John McCain in 2008 in Florida, but won Hispanics 57-42.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/04/v-fullstory/3034352/poll-hispanics-in-florida-favor.html

As for Arizona, a close race there is plausible. A September poll showed Romney leading by only 3 points.

Arizona (Romney +3): For the first time, we have included Arizona as a stand-alone state, and find Mitt Romney leading 48% to 45%. Romney is also winning independents in the state (47% to 42%), while President Obama is performing very well among Hispanics (58% to 28%). This represents an improvement on his result among Hispanics in Arizona in 2008, where he defeated John McCain by 15 points among that k ey group.

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

There must be a reason they pulled out Arizona for the first time.

Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming
http://sync.democraticunderground.com/10021506630

Jim Acosta just tweeted: Obama leads 44-42% in Arizona!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251140145

Nate:

Although AZ poll very likely an outlier, one scary thing for Romney is that it included Spanish-language interviews. (1/3)

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight