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Look, registered republicans were only 24% of all registered voters before the last election, and they have been bleeding support since jan 6th. People are only leaving the party. Plus, a lot of those left are only-trump voters, and won't show up to vote for anyone else.
So even at the 24% number, 86% of those is only 20% of registered voters.
And 538 is just an aggregator of polls. The real question is why does he continue to weight rasmussen and other putrid pollsters like gallup in the poll averages at all?