What is UP with Nate Silver these days?

[Samantha]

49. I have been wondering the same thing

Last edited Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:43 AM - Edit history (1)

I started a thread here on September 29 which was entitled Nate Silver gives Obama a 69.4 percent chance of winning Florida. On that day, he also predicted:

319.3 Electoral College Votes Projected for Obama
218.7 Electoral College Votes Projected for Romney

I checked earlier today and saw

283.1 EC votes for Obama
254.9 EC votes for Romney

66.8% chance of a Romney win in Florida (can you believe that after what he predicted on September 29th?)

57.4 chance of Romney win Colorado

52.5% chance of Romney win in Virginia (it was 76.5% percent chance of an Obama win on September 29)

63.5% chance of Obama win in Ohio (it was 83.9% chance of Obama win on September 29th)

89.5% chance of Obama win in Pennsylvania (it was 97.1% chance of Obama win on September 29th)

92.7% chance of Obama win in Michigan (it was 96.8% chance for Obama win on September 29th)

75.5% chance of Obama win in Wisconsin (it was 89.7% chance for Obama win on September 29th)

I simply cannot believe these dips in these percentages in not quite two weeks. It is just too astounding. Even if one believes Romney won that first debate (I personally do not; I think he defaulted through cheating and lying), that to me does not explain these steep drops.

If you have any thoughts on this, I would love to know what they are. I am, BTW, a Nate Silver fan. But something here does not pass the smell test.

Sam

September 29th thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021438787