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Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:56 PM

Pew freak out. Nate Silver says, "Get a grip." [View all]

According to Twitter, Barack Obama went from a huge favorite at 1 PM to a huge underdog at 4 PM. Get a grip, people.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/255412550932516864


Pew has Romney ahead by 4 points among likely voters, tied among registered voters (updated)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021495453


Pew Poll states the obvious: If actual electorate is R+3, Obama loses

<...>

Well, let's look in Pew's documentation (linked above), particularly in a section entitled, "Patters of Voter Support, September-October."

Did Romney's debate performance pluck some Democratic support away from Obama? Nope. The president's lead is virtually unchanged within his own party, from 93-5 in September to 94-5 now.

Did Romney strengthen himself among Republicans? Hardly, these numbers shifted from 92-5 to 91-7.

Did Romney achieve a major breakthrough among Independents? Only if you consider a 2-3 point shift within each candidate major (from Obama leading 45-44 to Romney ahead 46-42).

<...>

In other words, we've learned something we should already have known. That if the electorate on Nov. 6 is 3 percentage points more

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141808/-Pew-Poll-states-the-obvious-If-actual-electorate-is-R-3-Obama-loses

The independent numbers are wrong there (it's actually Obama 48, Romney 47), but point taken.

PEW! ...somethin' stinks!

I know there's probably a lot of sensitivity about going into the "polls are skewed" thing, especially when approaching a respected pollster like Pew. So I won't unskew at all...I'll just present some demographic info from page 14 of the PDF of the today's poll showing Romney ahead by 4, and you can make your own judgments or calculations as you see fit in the comments:

Reps: 392
Dems: 361

50+ voters outnumber everyone else more than 2-1

White (non-Hispanic) voters surveyed: 869
Everyone else: 173 (!!!)


Note: This is from the LIKELY VOTER column.



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141800/-PEW-somethin-stinks


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Reply Pew freak out. Nate Silver says, "Get a grip." [View all]
ProSense Oct 2012 OP
gabeana Oct 2012 #1
patrice Oct 2012 #24
theKed Oct 2012 #2
The Magistrate Oct 2012 #3
Blaukraut Oct 2012 #4
patrice Oct 2012 #21
spanone Oct 2012 #5
winstars Oct 2012 #6
nc4bo Oct 2012 #10
ailsagirl Oct 2012 #15
Glimmer of Hope Oct 2012 #17
Cha Oct 2012 #32
SidDithers Oct 2012 #7
mzmolly Oct 2012 #8
GoneOffShore Oct 2012 #9
SidDithers Oct 2012 #11
ProSense Oct 2012 #12
Cha Oct 2012 #30
kevink077 Oct 2012 #13
SunSeeker Oct 2012 #19
kevink077 Oct 2012 #23
DisabledAmerican Oct 2012 #29
meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #14
Gabi Hayes Oct 2012 #18
meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #25
Barack_America Oct 2012 #16
reformist2 Oct 2012 #28
Barack_America Oct 2012 #33
patrice Oct 2012 #20
patrice Oct 2012 #22
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #26
bluestateguy Oct 2012 #27
Cha Oct 2012 #31
Gabi Hayes Oct 2012 #34
Gabi Hayes Oct 2012 #35