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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Thu Nov 19, 2020, 01:24 AM

11. Their internal polling was better but not much better

than public polling, from what I saw posted here.

Most polling - both internal and public, both Repub and Dem - was wrong again, in some states very off.

Nate Cohn recently posted a good article about why the polling industry got it wrong again. In 2016 the issue was the composition of the electorate, where working class white turnout was underestimated. This time it had more to do with preference. Biden was thought to be doing better with working class whites and seniors but in actuality it was no better than what Hillary did with these groups. Our outreach to Latinos was terrible and we underestimated Trump's message and appeal with several Latino subgroups. The outreach to blacks wasn't that great either as the turnout was basically the same as '16. Young voters and new voters turned out better, and the suburbs came through for us. Thank the Lincoln Project for this, as their messaging was sharp. But alot of those swing voters then voted downballot for Repubs, why it's not a sustainable strategy to rely on such voters. We have to message better to our base voters and turn them out.

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