General Discussion

moose65

(3,166 posts)

44. I agree

Sun Oct 25, 2020, 07:58 PM

Oct 2020

We tend to forget just how close the election was in 2016 (yes, I know Hillary won the popular vote). Trump won by 11,000 votes in Michigan, 22,000 in Wisconsin, and 44,000 in Pennsylvania. If Biden wins all of Hillary’s states and takes back those three, he wins. I think Pennsylvania and Michigan have already swung back. Wisconsin is a tougher nut to crack, but Biden has other paths through Arizona and NC. I don’t realistically see Trump picking up any state he didn’t win in 2016.

2016 was a perfect storm of Russian interference, Comey’s late announcement of yet another email “scandal” and 25 years of Republicans demonizing Hillary. None of that applies this time. Plus, people have now seen 4 years of Trump’s “performance” as President.

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Prediction: Biden wins by a lot more than people are expecting [View all] Dr. Jack Oct 2020 OP

Well-written and well-thought out DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #1

trump will sue, appeal, refile, ad infinitum as he has done successfully kiri Oct 2020 #47

Not going to happen DonaldsRump Oct 2020 #48

Good-spirited DUers kiri Oct 2020 #54

Excellent analysis Dr. Jack! MaryMagdaline Oct 2020 #2

Your words to God's ears.... Sogo Oct 2020 #3

Agreed. I like your analysis, especially about the money. Nobody is backing Trump with $$$. nt Progressive Jones Oct 2020 #4

Could you please direct me to where Silver is saying that...? regnaD kciN Oct 2020 #5

It was in his podcast Dr. Jack Oct 2020 #10

Is this the podcast where he talked about "herding" DLCWIdem Oct 2020 #13

I want Joe to win the electoral votes. The popular vote is Joe's no doubt. peacebuzzard Oct 2020 #6

+ struggle4progress Oct 2020 #9

I hope it's the largest defeat to an incumbent in history. 2naSalit Oct 2020 #7

That's probably Taft in 1912 ironflange Oct 2020 #19

That's what I'm hoping for. A humiliating defeat for the moron. George II Oct 2020 #25

Agreed Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #28

Absolutely agreed. Couldn't have said it better. nt crickets Oct 2020 #49

That record will not likely be beaten fescuerescue Oct 2020 #56

Biden WILL BE my President. OrlandoDem2 Oct 2020 #8

Forgot to also mention election day turnout Dr. Jack Oct 2020 #11

When you consider that... 2naSalit Oct 2020 #41

The Infector-In-Chief Sugarcoated Oct 2020 #50

I'm not counting any chickens just yet. cwydro Oct 2020 #12

One more factor: Fiendish Thingy Oct 2020 #14

Turn around three times and spit nycbos Oct 2020 #15

Yes, never tempt the Sherman A1 Oct 2020 #26

nycbos.... Upthevibe Oct 2020 #45

Plausible for sure. triron Oct 2020 #16

Agree on everything but GOP turnout. BannonsLiver Oct 2020 #17

Great analysis. Demsrule86 Oct 2020 #18

Vote like he'll lose if you don't vote. KentuckyWoman Oct 2020 #20

A blow out of epic proportions is coming malaise Oct 2020 #21

I agree. But nobody should be taking it for granted. GOTV. captain queeg Oct 2020 #22

Even 538 says there is a 30% chance of a landslide. nt Quixote1818 Oct 2020 #23

What I find funny is that Trump's base doesn't believe the polls because of last time and so they Quixote1818 Oct 2020 #24

The prediction below was made Sat, April 11.this year..It says Trump will lose "ALL ELECTORAL VOTES" Stuart G Oct 2020 #27

Now that's putting it out there! NoRoadUntravelled Oct 2020 #35

I will not believe dump Meowmee Oct 2020 #29

Polling models don't account for voter suppression BainsBane Oct 2020 #30

Very well reasoned. NoRoadUntravelled Oct 2020 #31

I certainly hope so. warmfeet Oct 2020 #32

The street corner crowds are gone Loge23 Oct 2020 #33

I like your#7. One analyst said that it's the down ballot that reveals everything. Karadeniz Oct 2020 #34

I likewise think Biden/Harris will win... Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #36

as long as Biden voters cast their ballots before election day AlexSFCA Oct 2020 #37

Thank you for this! Withywindle Oct 2020 #38

Yes! Very similar to what I observed... Buckeye_Democrat Oct 2020 #42

Obstacles include turnout, counting, litigating, leaving bucolic_frolic Oct 2020 #39

I think Trump's approval rating for the past four years has remained fairly steady Mr. Ected Oct 2020 #40

I'm lifted by your reasoning pandr32 Oct 2020 #43

I agree moose65 Oct 2020 #44

You Could Very Well be Right. Two Big Things That the Dems Got Wrong in 2016 Were: panfluteman Oct 2020 #46

Me too. Thank you. Joinfortmill Oct 2020 #51

I'm certainly hoping the polls are conservative this cycle Dem2 Oct 2020 #52

There is no James Comey to destroy his opponent this time. StevieM Oct 2020 #53

Yes, I've been saying pretty much the same thing Tom Rinaldo Oct 2020 #55

From your lips to God's ear Mtbar Oct 2020 #57