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Response to Rule of Claw (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 09:05 PM

4. Percentage of white vote is a good way to look at things


That's a relationship I check all the time, the difference between the white vote toward the Democrat and the percentage of conservatives. I'm not a believer in high Biden margin in Arizona partially because I don't know where it comes from. We've already been receiving a healthy share of the white vote in Arizona. Hillary got 40% there in 2016, which was equal or better than any current swing state other than Wisconsin (42%). Sinema got 45% of the white vote in Arizona in 2018 while winning by 2.4%.

You are correct that Georgia has plenty of room to grow in the white vote. Hillary received a ridiculous 21%, which was by far her lowest of any current swing state. Texas was next worst at 26%.

However, it seems a stretch to me to take Biden all the way up to 36% whites in Georgia. I don't see a number like that in my records. For example, Obama 23% in 2008, Abrams 25% in 2018...

I'm mostly watching college football so not exactly checking all the records. Maybe I'll look for more sample later.

I think you nailed the Pennsylvania estimate that Biden needs 42% of the white vote to feel comfortable. Hillary got 40% there, same as Iowa and Arizona.

But I think it also demonstrates that a gap of only 6% in the white vote between Georgia and Pennsylvania simply is not logical, given the 19% margin in the same category of 2016. Biden is worth a lot to Hillary-haters, but not that much, not in a state with 42% self-identified conservatives.

Excellent thread overall

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Rule of Claw Oct 17 OP
Tribetime Oct 17 #1
underpants Oct 17 #2
vercetti2021 Oct 17 #3
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