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Response to Drunken Irishman (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 08:35 PM

40. PA is clearly the most important state.

Newsweek: If We Don't Win in Pennsylvania, 'We Are So Screwed,' Biden Insider Says
The tipping point, sources within the campaign say, was a September 26 ABC News/Washington Post poll showing much softer support among the state's Biden voters than among those backing Trump. Echoing the campaign's own disquieting internal data, the survey found that, despite an overall nine-point lead for the former VP, only 51 percent of Biden backers were "very enthusiastic" about their candidate vs. 71 percent of those who supported Trump. That "rang the alarm," a top Biden insider says.

It's a state with the mail-in voting uncertaintly, the registration of white rural voters being higher, etc. But we did win recent statewide races there, and are running a strong campaign (Lincoln Project running tough ads) there this time in a way that we did not last time. Biden was also born in PA and was the longtime Senator from a neighboring state.

But clearly there is something going on in the Sunbelt (AZ, TX, GA, NC). I could see a scenario where we win some of those states and for some crazy reason lose PA even though 538's 'snake' would indicate otherwise.

I just have a feeling Texas is going to shock the world. Biden is polling closer in TX than Trump polled in the Midwest last time. If there is a polling error in Biden's favor he could easily win Texas.

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Arrow 47 replies Author Time Post
Drunken Irishman Oct 17 OP
elleng Oct 17 #1
LisaL Oct 17 #2
COL Mustard Oct 17 #35
dem4decades Oct 17 #4
regnaD kciN Oct 17 #3
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CaptYossarian Oct 17 #8
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whopis01 Oct 18 #46
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Drunken Irishman Oct 17 #9
Statistical Oct 17 #13
Yavin4 Oct 17 #23
PTWB Oct 17 #15
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dsc Oct 17 #24
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Drunken Irishman Oct 17 #21
Marthe48 Oct 17 #25
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USALiberal Oct 17 #30
Drunken Irishman Oct 17 #31
USALiberal Oct 17 #32
grantcart Oct 17 #37
SpankMe Oct 17 #33
IronLionZion Oct 17 #36
SayItLoud Oct 17 #39
LineNew Reply PA is clearly the most important state.
radius777 Oct 17 #40
Rstrstx Oct 17 #45
RicROC Oct 17 #41
jb5150 Oct 17 #42
RandySF Oct 17 #43
George II Oct 17 #44
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