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The_jackalope

(1,660 posts)

7. The site I use has the CFR for closed cases at 20%

Fri Apr 3, 2020, 03:32 PM

Apr 2020

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

But the number of closed (recovered + died) cases is only 25% of the total number of cases. If the same ratio were to apply to the active cases that has shown up in the closed cases, the CFR for the disease would be 20%.

That of course would be driven down by more testing, but could also be raised somewhat by counting deaths that occur outside hospitals that may not currently be recorded.

Being elderly, the CFR numbers for the elderly make we want to stay indoors as much as humanly possible. Lucky I'm a misanthropic introvert!

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Big numbers [View all] The_jackalope Apr 2020 OP

I would say you are very good at this. I actually can understand it and that is saying something. monmouth4 Apr 2020 #1

Thanks! nt The_jackalope Apr 2020 #4

This study in Lancet has the CFR at 1.38 percent. And I would bet that goes down with more data. blitzen Apr 2020 #2

I have no doubt the Lancet has way better statisticians than me. The_jackalope Apr 2020 #3

Yes, I think the official case numbers are way low (lack of testing, etc.), and so the CFR will... blitzen Apr 2020 #6

The site I use has the CFR for closed cases at 20% The_jackalope Apr 2020 #7

I disagree as a high number of people died of CFR and were not counted IMHO. We know this happened Demsrule86 Apr 2020 #5