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In the discussion thread: Death Rate Soaring 😳 [View all]

Response to Dem2 (Reply #23)

Tue Mar 10, 2020, 06:56 PM

24. No.

"Whatever the number is, it's gonna take a toll. If it really does spread as widely as that projection says, and that's what I think is likely to happen, then there are gonna be millions of people dying." Where do you interpret that as "in the US?" He never says that anywhere in the interview.

Here's the way this works: When there's a new epidemic that can spread rapidly, you rush to contain/quarantine it not so much to keep it from spreading (which is usually impossible,) but to slow down its spread as much as possible. Otherwise, you have this rapidly rising bubble of demand on healthcare infrastructure (doctors, nurses, hospital beds, etc.,) which will overwhelm it. Instead, you want to flatten out that bubble of demand as much as possible so it doesn't rise so sharply and so high. The demand will last longer but it is less likely to overwhelm the healthcare infrastructure or, at least, make it a little less overwhelming.

Finally, if there are, say, a million deaths from this over the next few years worldwide, that would mean about 40,000 in the US statistically. So, while it's no trivial matter to be sure, there's a difference between 40,000 deaths and a million.

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