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Response to Yavin4 (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 08:45 PM

19. Because of 15 years of low interest rates

which haven't been above about 5% since 2001, and were .25% QE1-2-3, we have overcapacity in everything. The Greenspan years were about overcapacity and created the housing bubble. Now we have more overcapacity. Small company stocks? Biotechs? There must be 5000 microcap biotechs with negative earnings for decades to come, some losing $15, $30, $85 a share ... yet able to float stock and borrow more. How much more consumer electronics do we need from China? More luxury autos and auto loans. People are underwater on their auto loans, 25% or something like that are behind in their loans. The shakeout is coming.

I think the Florida housing bubble of the 1920s is the closest thing to this time period. We're headed for a hosing and a cleansing. The Trump tax cuts will make it impossible to revive, or maybe clawing back some of those cuts will help.

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Yavin4 Aug 14 OP
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LineReply Because of 15 years of low interest rates
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