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Response to Downtown Hound (Reply #4)

Mon Aug 5, 2019, 03:20 PM

5. You lose if you make a claim and show no proof. I've at least got polling history in the OP.

from Wikipedia:

From 1936 to 2008, Gallup Polls correctly predicted the winner of the presidential election with the notable exceptions of the 1948 Thomas Dewey-Harry S. Truman election,[citation needed] where nearly all pollsters predicted a Dewey victory (which also led to the infamous Dewey Defeats Truman headline[according to whom?]), and 1976, when they inaccurately projected a slim victory by Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter.[citation needed]

For the 2008 U.S. presidential election, Gallup correctly predicted the winner, but was rated 17th out of 23 polling organizations in terms of the precision of its pre-election polls relative to the final results.[48]

In 2012, Gallup's final election survey had Mitt Romney at 49% and Barack Obama at 48%, compared to the final election results showing Obama with 51.1% to Romney's 47.2%.[49]

Poll analyst Nate Silver found that Gallup's results were the least accurate of the 23 major polling firms Silver analyzed, having the highest incorrect average of being 7.2 points away from the final result.[50] Frank Newport, the editor-in-chief of Gallup, responded to the criticism by stating that Gallup simply makes an estimate of the national popular vote rather than predicting the winner and that their final poll was within the statistical margin of error.

Newport also criticized analysts such as Silver who aggregate and analyze other people's polls, stating that "Itís much easier, cheaper, and mostly less risky to focus on aggregating and analyzing othersí polls."[51]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallup_(company)#Accuracy

Nate Silver is a poll aggregator. Period.

Gallup has spent 80 years building representative sampling of the U.S. population. That's where the strength of polls lie. Sampling.

Question: Have you ever studied graduate level statistics? Or statistics?

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ancianita Aug 2019 OP
Downtown Hound Aug 2019 #1
ancianita Aug 2019 #2
Downtown Hound Aug 2019 #4
LineLineLineLineReply You lose if you make a claim and show no proof. I've at least got polling history in the OP.
ancianita Aug 2019 #5
Downtown Hound Aug 2019 #6
ancianita Aug 2019 #9
Downtown Hound Aug 2019 #19
Thekaspervote Aug 2019 #18
spanone Aug 2019 #3
hunter Aug 2019 #7
ancianita Aug 2019 #11
hunter Aug 2019 #23
ancianita Aug 2019 #26
sarisataka Aug 2019 #8
elocs Aug 2019 #10
sarisataka Aug 2019 #14
elocs Aug 2019 #16
hunter Aug 2019 #24
elocs Aug 2019 #12
ancianita Aug 2019 #13
elocs Aug 2019 #15
ancianita Aug 2019 #21
elocs Aug 2019 #22
ancianita Aug 2019 #25
sarisataka Aug 2019 #17
ancianita Aug 2019 #20
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