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Sun Jun 2, 2019, 05:27 PM

Pay attention folks in the Western Gulf of Mexico [View all]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. This system is expected to
move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could
become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the
next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission scheduled
for this afternoon has been canceled, however another aircraft will
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecast for 91L
The 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model for 91L predicted that wind shear would remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days, the atmosphere would remain moist, and water temperatures would remain warm, at 28 - 29C (82 - 84F). These conditions favor development, and the only impediment to development is likely to be the amount of time 91L has over water, since its west to west-northwest motion could carry it inland over Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz as early as Sunday evening. Steering currents in the Gulf are expected to weaken by Monday and force 91L on a more northwesterly to northerly track at about 5 mph. It is possible the center could remain offshore until Tuesday, allowing the system more time to develop. Regardless of development, 91L is likley to spread heavy rains of 3 - 6 along a stretch of coast from Veracruz to just south of Brownsville, Texas by Wednesday. Late in the week, moisture from 91L may reach Texas, and could potentially stream into Louisiana and Arkansas by next weekend.

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Reply Pay attention folks in the Western Gulf of Mexico [View all]
malaise Jun 2 OP
Gothmog Jun 2 #1
malaise Jun 2 #2
Igel Jun 2 #15
malaise Jun 2 #16
yortsed snacilbuper Jun 2 #3
malaise Jun 2 #4
mitch96 Jun 2 #11
BigmanPigman Jun 2 #5
malaise Jun 2 #6
mitch96 Jun 2 #12
misanthrope Jun 2 #8
Texasgal Jun 2 #7
Uben Jun 2 #9
malaise Jun 2 #10
rurallib Jun 2 #13
malaise Jun 2 #14
rurallib Jun 2 #17
malaise Jun 2 #18
rurallib Jun 2 #19