Don't buy the lie that Mueller said he believes it's unconstitutional to indict a sitting president

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

76. It was pretty obvious to me that he was reflecting what the OLC opinions said,

which can be found here: https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/2000/10/31/op-olc-v024-p0222_0.pdf

But what would have happened if Mueller had decided to ignore the OLC opinions?

The OLC opined that a sitting president can't be indicted because to do so would violate the constitutional principle of separation of powers, but what if Mueller had decided, "Fuck that guy and fuck the OLC memos, he obstructed justice and I'm gonna indict his ass." Of course, the opinion stated in the OLC memos is not settled law, although the argument and the research and reasoning behind it is rational and credible, not "stupid" or "bullshit," as some have described it. Others, notably Lawrence Tribe, have made very good arguments to the contrary, as here: https://www.lawfareblog.com/yes-constitution-allows-indictment-president

So what if Mueller had decided scholars like Tribe were right and the OLC was wrong? Let's say he takes the evidence to a grand jury, which returns a bill of indictment actually charging the president and not just calling him an unindicted co-conspirator, as a Watergate grand jury did with Nixon. What would have happened to that indictment?

Most likely, Bill Barr is what would have happened, since it's probable that decision would have been made toward the end of the investigation and after Barr was appointed (and if not Barr, unqualified toady Whitaker or easily-intimidated Rosenstein).

Barr or his predecessors, on Trump's instructions or on their own, would have ensured that the indictment would have never seen the light of day and Mueller would have been fired. That's what would have happened. It would be another Saturday Night Massacre but without any heroes like Richardson and Ruckelshaus. Even though the Special Counsel regulations require any denials of proposed prosecution to be reported, if Mueller was fired there would be no report.

Or, taking it another direction, let's say Barr didn't quash the indictment or fire Mueller but instead challenged the indictment on the basis of the OLC opinions. Now we have two parts of the same agency, the DoJ, fighting with each other in court - the Special Counsel vs. his boss, the Attorney General. How does that play out? And if it ever did get to the Supreme Court, how is a majority of this Court going to rule? Kroner to krugerrands, they'd go with the OLC opinions.

So then we'd be back where we started and Trump will have run out the clock. Arguments about the validity and strength of the OLC guidance and whether Mueller should have followed it are academic and fruitless because the ultimate result would have been the same: no indictment.