Want to Win in 2020 ?

[Awsi Dooger]

22. Sherrod Brown probably can't win Ohio either

I'm not saying he couldn't win nationally but the math works against us in Ohio.

Too many whites. Very few Hispanics. That is the problem right there. Favorite son is generally worth 4 points but the gap is more than 4 points in Ohio.

When a state has more than 80% whites in the electorate and only 3% Hispanics, the logical percentages simply don't work for the black vote to push the Democratic nominee over the top in a very tight race nationally. Brown would probably need to be carrying the national popular vote by at least 4-5 points to drag his home state along with him.

My state of Florida takes plenty of grief around here. Meanwhile, Florida has a blend of every demographic and is very close to a true swing state. It is probably the closest thing to the national average of any state right now. It just happens to lean 1 point more red than the national average at base instinct, and Republicans have done a far better job at prioritizing and maximizing the state recently. I have seen that every cycle in my neighborhood.

Ohio does not take the same grief. Meanwhile it is much further removed from true swing state status. The national number in 2016 was 35% self-identified conservatives and 26% liberals. Florida that year was 36% conservatives and 25% liberals. Compare to Ohio which was 39% conservatives and 20% liberals.

Sorry, but at 19% gap, that state is gone for the foreseeable. There is no rescue. It was the same in 2018 with the Ohio exit poll revealing 39% conservatives and 21% liberals despite a heavy blue year. Rural and working class white have shifted away. There are too many of them in Ohio.

Ohio trended our way for a while. But the demographic shift was never real and meaningful like Virginia or Colorado, and now Arizona. Iowa has some of the same issues with even more whites and almost no blacks, but there are more liberals (23%) in Iowa, so that state remains somewhat available given the proper matchup.