Look for a stunner out of Arizona on Tuesday.

[Hortensis]

2. Fingers crossed. New poll has Hiral Tipirneni ahead 46-45,

but that is contradicted by early-vote counts.

Nevertheless, the GOP is scared and pumping new money like crazy into this race. After PA's special election failed to break their run of special election losses, as they'd once expected, the GOP reportedly viewed this race in AZ as their new fire wall. And now this poll after their Repub had been leading by double digits.

We're hoping to hand them their asses, of course, but if a Democrat in this deeply red district loses by single digits, they'll have also lost to a very real degree. They badly need a huge, symbolic victory, not one that proves their voter support is still falling away.

NYMag: Arizona’s eighth, comprised of conservative suburbs to the north and west of Phoenix, went for Trump in 2016 by a 21 percent margin, compared to Pennsylvania’s 18th district’s 20 points. Its Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index is R+13 (13 points more Republican than the national average); the 18th was R+11.

And there’s one respect in which the Arizona district is significantly less open to a Democratic candidate than was the district won by Conor Lamb: Republicans have a 17-point advantage in party registration in Arizona’s eighth, while Democrats held a 6-point advantage in the Pennsylvania district.

VOX: On April 24, Republican Debbie Lesko and Democrat Hiral Tipirneni will face off in the special election for Frank’s House seat. By every measure, Arizona’s Eighth Congressional District is considered to be safe Republican territory. It encompasses the suburbs north and west of Phoenix in Maricopa County — the stomping grounds of infamous former Sheriff Joe Arpaio and home to the reliably conservative Sun City retirement community. Trump won the district by 21 points. ...

The question most election observers are zeroing in on isn’t necessarily if Lesko is going to lose — she has a comfortable double-digit lead in the few polls and has some structural advantages — but whether Democrats can narrow the margin by which Trump and Franks won. And that alone is worrying the GOP.

“The question isn’t if the GOP will retain the seat, but how much does Lesko win by?” Mike Noble, a Republican pollster in the state, told the Guardian.