DemocraticPatriot
DemocraticPatriot's JournalHistory and Analysis of Florida/Ohio Presidential votes over the past 3/4s of a century
or something like that....
Florida
1976: The last instance of the Democratic "Solid south"-- because we nominated a southerner from Georgia... before that, we won Florida in the 1964 landslide, but Kennedy lost it in 1960.
1980 through 1992, the Republicans won Florida. Even Bill Clinton in 1992, with his "all-southern ticket" did not win in Florida--- although as the incumbent in 1996, he did manage to win it.
In 2000, the Democrats "officially" lost Florida, thanks to the Supreme Court ruling, although in all fairness it seems that we actually won it.... A huge number of Democrats punched the ballot for Al Gore, but also wrote in his name, which 'legally' spoiled their ballots-- even though their intent was "doubly clear"....
Democrats lost Florida in 2004.
In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama won Florida--- I credit those victories to a huge increase in the black vote, for the first African-American presidential nominee and President, as well as the effective landslide for the candidate in both of those years.
Democrats lost Florida in 2016 and 2020, and the state seems to have moved further right in those years. Most professionals no longer consider it to be a 'swing state'--- and personally, I believe the Democratic victories after 1976 to have been 'anomilies', due the strength of our candidates in those eight elections when we won the state. (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama)
OHIO
Ohio had a habit for a few cycles of always going for the winner of the popular vote--- for 60 years, they were known as 'the bell-weather state--- whoever won Ohio won the presidential election'---
but in the long-term of history, they were a more Republican state who gave us several Presidents-- Grant and Taft, for a start. Not sure who else at the moment...
Ohio is somewhat similar to Florida, in that extremely strong Democratic candidates in their year, were able to win it.... but not all of them....
Jimmy Carter won Ohio in 1976, which was a close election and therefore somewhat surprising to me--- but it did enforce 'the rule', "whoever wins Ohio wins the election".
After that, the Democrats lost Ohio, until nominating Bill Clinton, who was a strong candidate and won it in 1992 and 1996.
Afterwards, Democrats lost it in 2000 and 2004,
but Barack Obama won it in 2008 and 2012
(again, I credit that to increased African-American turnout, as well as the general strength of the candidate...)
Since 2012, the Democratic candidate has not won Ohio.
>>>Notably, President Roosevelt lost in Ohio in 1944, while easily winning the rest of the country (432-99 electoral votes).
(WTF, ohio?? LOL)
President John F. Kennedy also won the presidency in 1960, while losing Ohio. After that, President Joe Biden in 2020 also won the Presidency, while also losing Ohio--- the first presidential candidate in 60 years to do so...
Luckily, the Democrats are no longer dependent upon Ohio--- but I can't quite figure out what has happened to that state... The majority of their voters have obviously shifted to the right, although the majority also clearly support abortion rights. If we are to make any fight in that state (and all the rest for that matter, ) we must do so on the basis of reproductive rights as Issue number one!
But WTF about voting against Roosevelt in 1944?? That still boggles my mind.... lol
In either instance, I would not categorize either Florida or Ohio as "swing states" over the past half-century or more--- they would only swing to the Democrats when we had particularly strong candidates-- and otherwise would revert to voting for some weak Republican candidates... (Ford, Bush 1 and Bush 2...)
However, I think we have a particularly strong candidate with President Joe Biden---
especially when compared to 'the alternative' !!!!
(Not making an argument for making a serious fight for either of those states---
but "just saying"...)
Still, if we make a fight in those states, the Trump campaign will need to respond---
and they have a major financial problem going into the General election....
Thoughts?
Should US keep arming Israel? Poll finds most Americans want weapon shipments to stop
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article286584265.htmlMost Americans want the U.S. government to stop supplying weapons to Israel, according to new polling.
A narrow majority of U.S. adults, 52%, said American arms shipments should be stopped until Israel ends its attacks in Gaza, according to a YouGov poll released on March 11.
Less than one-third of respondents, 27%, said the shipments should not be halted, and 21% were unsure.
The poll, commissioned by the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) — a think tank in Washington, D.C. — sampled 1,000 U.S. adults, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The question over additional military aid revealed a strong partisan divide among respondents.
Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article286584265.html#storylink=cpy
Count me among the majority! --- and the vast majority of Democrats, according to this poll....
GREAT New Ad for Biden-Harris, "I see a future"
https://twitter.com/BidenHQ/status/1766119070565380599HEY, Gov. Abbot!!! Contemplating a request for Federal Disaster Relief---????
Best address that request to President Jefferson Davis!!!!
The *Best Hope* for SURVIVAL of "the Republican Party" is a BIDEN VICTORY in 2024!!!
After which, they might be enabled to debate political issues honestly,
without being told what to say by the big orange ANUS !!!!
They can't seem to get rid of him by themselves,
so must join forces with Democrats !
(speaking of the 'NON-CULT' members of that party,
of course, who are regrettably few...)
They THRIVE as an "opposition party"!
Governing themselves?? Not so much....
The problem with the classic movie "The Manchurian Candidate",
is that they left out the part about the 'golden showers'....
HOW DARE BEYONCE, to invade their "safe white musical space"!!!
But once again, MAGAts defy logic!
As a 'hard rock purist' in the early 1980s, I mocked the pop-rock artists, whose music I considered to be "below the hard-rock standard"!
...Bands like the "GoGo's' who were clearly oriented towards commercial success, less than 'artistry', as well as all the rest of the 'pop music' of the time (but today I love those those girls-- even if I disparaged them at the time, now it is nostalgia)
Likewise I disparaged groups whom I thought had "softened their sound" in pursuit of commercial success---
STYX was a major target for that personal complaint.... (Mr. Roboto-- what the fuck was that??)
"SELL-OUTS!!" me and my friends called them!
(On a side note, in the 80s, I could never understand anyone who was a musical partisan of hard rock, or a partaker of marijuana,
voting for members of the Republican party--- but I digress)
But Never EVER would I have attacked a band for hardening their sound,
for attempting to JOIN the 'Hard Rock' Genre. Why would I do that??
It would have made no sense from my musical perspective...
So back to Beyonce.... Her foray into 'Country Music' could only broaden and strengthen 'Country' as a musical genre---
broadening its 'base'
They should welcome her! They should be thrilled!
Instead, those MAGAts who like country music represent it as a 'closed group',
where artists of color are "NOT WELCOME" !!!!
"NO IMMIGRANTS!"
"IRISH NOT WELCOME"
"WHITES ONLY"!
Yes, it is 'shocking' at first--- but not at all 'surpising' upon further reflection.....
President Joe Biden WILL be effectively NOMINATED on March 5th,
when over 2,000 delegates to the Democratic convention will be selected on 'super Tuesday' primaries.
(It requires somewhat less than 2,000 delegates to win the nomination).
The filing deadlines for 44 out of the 50 states have already passed....
so there is no time, and no possibility of any 'phantom savior candidate' arising and having any chance whatsoever
of denying the nomination of President "Fighting Joe" Biden!!
SO, I would like the "horse-race" but ignorant news correspondents
who are still fantasizing about any other possible outcome
to educate themselves about the current nomination process of the Democratic Party,
and then, just SHUT THE FUCK UP!!!!--- your ignorant articles are not going to change that outcome!
Fifty or more years ago, filing deadlines for most states occurred much later,
and if you go back far enough (pre-1972), many states did not even have presidential primaries--
that was the era of the 'smoke-filled room' where party bigwigs, insiders, and perhaps caucuses,
appointed delegates to the party convention! That period is LONG OVER!
(Thanks to Sen. George McGovern, who led the effort to reform party rules after 1968).
Regardless of the bed-wetting and hand-wringing of such people,
NO POTENTIAL REPLACEMENT has been shown to out-poll President Biden
in the contest against the fascist-racist-rapist-Naziwannabe-obnoxious and shit-smelly GQP Orange Idol!!
And every such viable potential Democratic candidate has LONG AGO thrown their strength behind our President!
Barring any unforseen circumstances, we know now who the two main candidates will be---
The question is not about who is 'too old' or 'too crazy'--
(although the idolized GQP candidate is BOTH "TOO OLD AND TOO CRAZY!"---)
The two candidates will be
"DEMOCRACY, FREEDOM, REASON & REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS Nice Guy"
versus
"CRAZY-ASS SENILE FASCIST WANNABE KING, PUTIN'S BITCH-BOY, DICTATOR and HITLER-ADMIRERING ORANGE ASSHOLE! "
I presume everyone here can tell which is which.
Profile Information
Gender: MaleHometown: Michigan
Member since: Thu Jan 7, 2021, 04:31 AM
Number of posts: 5,410