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sfstaxprep

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Member since: Sat Mar 21, 2020, 01:43 AM
Number of posts: 2,082

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Heavy Death Toll Came As Surprise To Head Of Sweden's No-Lockdown Plan

The man leading Sweden's coronavirus response says the country's elevated death toll "really came as a surprise to us."

Dr. Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, appeared on "The Daily Show with Trevor Noah" on Tuesday, when he described the country's controversial approach.

"We never really calculated with a high death toll initially, I must say," he said.

"We calculated on more people being sick, but the death toll really came as a surprise to us."

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-lockdown-chief-says-high-death-toll-was-surprise-2020-5

James Carville & Eugene Robinson On Tonight's "The 11th Hour"

I highly recommend. Very lively interview, which is always the case with James.

I've seen him worried earlier this year, but he's completely changed. He says the election is over, that the Government is self-destructing before our eyes.

He says they're basically looting everything they can on the way out.

Eugene agreed with him completely about the election being a done deal.

So I'm Watching The Stone Skipping Championship On ESPN Right Now

After that, it's the Cherry Pit Spitting Championship. The best one follows that, Juggling while Dodging Balls being thrown at you by others.

I really think ESPN is trolling us at this point.

New Test Shows IHME COVID-19 Death Projections Display Optimism Bias

I contend that the White House relies on unrealistically optimistic projections of number of U.S. deaths from COVID-19. These projections are produced by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. In this post, I discuss evidence from a new test that supports this assertion.

In my previous post, I proposed to test for unrealistic optimism at several milestone dates, with the first date being April 30. Today is May 1, and I report the results.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hershshefrin/2020/05/01/new-test-shows-that-ihme-covid-19-death-projections-display-optimism-bias/#142c3e022038

University Of Washington Models Predict 72,433 Total Deaths By August

How many people are likely to die in the United States of Covid-19? How many hospital beds is the country going to need? When will case numbers peak? To answer those questions, many hospital planners, media outlets, and government bodies — including the White House — relied heavily on one particular model out of the many that have been published in the past two months: the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

The model first estimated in late March that there’d be fewer than 161,000 deaths total in the US; in early April, it revised its projections to say the total death toll through August was “projected to be 60,415” (though it acknowledged the range could be between 31,221 and 126,703). The model has been cited often by the White House and has informed its policymaking. But it may have led the administration astray: The IHME has consistently forecast many fewer deaths than most other models, largely because the IHME model projects that deaths will decline rapidly after the peak — an assumption that has not been borne out.

On Wednesday, the US death count passed the 60,000 mark that the IHME model had said was the likely total cumulative death toll. The IHME on April 29 released a new update raising its estimates for total deaths to 72,433, but that, too, looks likely to be proved an underestimate as soon as next week. Even its upper bound on deaths — now listed as 114,228 by August — is questionable, as some other models expect the US will hit that milestone by the end of May, and most project it will in June.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/2/21241261/coronavirus-modeling-us-deaths-ihme-pandemic
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