where he can claim victory and avert the worst blowback that's possible.

He could retreat his forces back across the border and claim that his goal all along was to push Ukrainian forces away from the seperatist regions he just recognized. He could claim those areas are now safe and that the specieal military operation is over.

He could avoid what's surely going to be the worst scene of urban warfare in history that could last years and cost trillions. Avoid the potential of being unable to full take Ukraine, which would be a massive embarresment, and avoid greater diplomatic and economic loses by Russia.

It's right there if he wants to take it.

A day or so ago that this conflict will open the door for lots of experienced insurgents to flow in to Ukraine for the opportunity to fight Russians. They made a lot of enemies in Syria and that's not a hard journey to make....case in point.

https://twitter.com/suheilhammoud/status/1497199703641014272?t=tfgI07U0-NmKQYfMURm0sw&s=19

You're going to see experienced insurgents providing that information to a very willing population. If they take Kyiv or any Ukrainian city really, they'll wish they didn't.

Russia denying this, but of course they would.