October 27, 2020

NC Polls - this will go down to the wire...

Survey USA: dead even (48/48)

https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2020/10/27/19356729/PollPrint-DMID1-5onuvxx1t.pdf

Ipsos: Biden +1
Public Policy Polling: Biden +4
RMG Research: Biden +1

I know we don’t need it. I want it.

October 27, 2020

So now NC?

JFC. So he’s not going to accept any results other than what’s counted on election night?

And I’d like to be convinced why the courts won’t back him…

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1321149921270108162?s=20

October 26, 2020

PA: Insider Advantage (B-) Trump +3

https://twitter.com/thechrisbuskirk/status/1320772034469654528?s=20

Post-debate poll. The same poll had Biden in the lead less than two weeks ago. Not a trend I want to accept...

Why? InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery explained why things have moved in Trump’s favor:

“These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggests that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.”

October 21, 2020

538 Election Simulator

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

This is really cool. It’s similar to the website 270towin.com, where you click a state to make it Red or Blue and compile an electoral count. But for this one, if you choose an outcome for a state, you see how it affects the odds of either candidate winning the election or it how changes the odds in other states.

October 19, 2020

Are the polls wrong?

What to make of this... Provides some perspective outside of traditional polls

https://fortune.com/2020/10/14/polls-trump-biden-presidential-race-artificial-intelligence/?fbclid=IwAR3ro9cJm22aA8aN4wpkDC5fMBFKFsbZ4rxyVcXqEeCg1SUwWbOAlYfGX-Q

September 8, 2020

Florida: A+ rated Marist poll

Fla.
Aug 31-Sep 6, 2020
766 LV
Marist College
Biden-48%
Trump-48%

Fla.
Aug 31-Sep 6, 2020
1,047 RV
Marist College
Biden-47%
Trump-48%

F’ing Florida always keeping things “interesting”

August 14, 2020

A+ Rated Marist Poll Added Today! Biden +11

General Election:

Biden - 53%
Trump - 42%

[link:https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/|

August 11, 2020

Speculation over Biden's VP pick grows after list of DNC speakers released

Source: KRON4

MILWAUKEE, Wisc. (KRON) – The Democratic National Convention is now less than a week away.

The theme will be “Uniting America.”

Speakers of various backgrounds are scheduled to speak at next week’s convention.

CNN’s Dan Merica reports the following speakers:

Monday: Bernie Sanders, Andrew Cuomo, Gretchen Whitmer, John Kasich, Amy Klobuchar, Michelle Obama
Tuesday: Chuck Schumer, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bill Clinton, Jill Biden
Wednesday: Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton
Thursday: Joe Biden, Tammy Duckworth, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Cory Booker

Speculation started to grow after the apparent list of speakers was released, with some noting that potential VP nominees Susan Rice, Karen Bass, and Val Demings were not included.

Read more: https://www.kron4.com/news/your-local-election-hq/newsom-obama-among-speakers-slated-for-democratic-national-convention/

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Getting feeling that my first choice of Kamala Harris is not meant to be…?

July 31, 2020

PPP Minnesota poll... Biden +10!

Biden: 52%
Trump: 42%
Undecided: 6%

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiffords.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F07%2FMinnesotaResults2.pdf

March 13, 2020

Will voters turn out this Tuesday?

It seems that at least 2/3 of the news cycle is devoted to coronavirus. The demographic that does most poorly if infected are those >60-65. Having comorbidities can drag in a slightly younger, yet still aged, cohort into that risk pool. It’s no secret that Biden polls disproportionately well with older folks.

Anyone concerned that proportion of voters may shift and significantly alter the margins on Tuesday the 17th?

(Sorry if this has been discussed in another post)