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Gender: Do not display
Current location: Texas Hill Country
Member since: Sat Aug 24, 2019, 03:02 PM
Number of posts: 295

About Me

Conservatives to the left of me! Reactionaries to the right! The Republicans have me surrounded!! Send help!!

Journal Archives

Keep your eyes on Texas but not the prognosticators

This morning Forbes ran an article ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckdevore/2020/10/29/trump-by-a-landslide-in-texas-early-voting-numbers-are-diverging-strongly-from-the-polls/?sh=303b08751fca) suggesting a Trump landslide based on early voting data compiled by NBC (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-results).

There are too many new variables going on, though. The massive increase in voting in Harris county due to officials there tearing down voter suppression barriers, the blue wave moving up from the south, etc.

But my local observations tell me it's anybody's race. I am seeing far more blue signs in my deep red town in a deep red county than I've ever seen before. Yards which I KNOW are typically GOP are either silent or showing blue. The most notable is my neighbor who was a GOP CANDIDATE and caucus chair a few years back. His yard is more blue than mine. I have my Biden signs but he has gone full blue.

So Forbe's predictions based on past behavior are very very uncertain.

My fingers are crossed, my toes are crossed and, based on my ulcer I think my intestines have twisted themselves into a lovely braid. Even my face is blue from hlding my breath.

Just a few more days... breathe.... breathe...
Posted by HelpImSurrounded | Fri Oct 30, 2020, 09:23 AM (14 replies)

Question about senate and house offices/staff/resources

How well connected are they? Do they vet callers?

A few years back when I was providing tech support to a campaign I became aware of L2political. The amount of readily available voter data they have there is astonishing. I would assume that if I call my senator they would pull up my name, look at my D registration, list of D donations see zero R support and instantly set my comment aside as not relevant.

Are they in 21st century or am I just paranoid?
Posted by HelpImSurrounded | Fri Oct 23, 2020, 10:35 AM (0 replies)


I am ecstatic!!!

I didn't know our new voting machines print paper ballots to scan! Granted our little county doesn't matter much but it's a HUGE relief to have an auditable paper trail!

It's not perfect. To improve it the ballot should have a detachable part with a unique id printed on it that matches the ballot. Then voters could confirm their ballots are correctly counted and/or not lost.

EVERY voter should be able to vote like this.
Posted by HelpImSurrounded | Thu Oct 15, 2020, 12:31 PM (32 replies)

538 projection shows Biden at all time high

538 now puts a Biden win at 80:20 one point higher than ever before.

I know, I know. Don't get lax, don't believe the polls but if I can spend a few hours believing in Harry Dresden fighting alongside Santa Claus I can spend 5 minutes fantasizing that probability is actuality.

Posted by HelpImSurrounded | Thu Oct 1, 2020, 12:04 PM (18 replies)
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