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Joinfortmill
Joinfortmill's Journal
Joinfortmill's Journal
May 1, 2023
This should be a 'shit show'. (my words)
'CNN immediately came under fire Monday afternoon when the flailing news network announced it will host a "presidential town hall" next week featuring Donald Trump, the ex-president who is under criminal felony indictment, currently being sued in a civil rape and defamation case, and under multiple other likely criminal investigations including for his actions surrounding his January 6, 2021 insurrection and efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
The event," CNN revealed, "will feature the former president taking questions from New Hampshire Republicans and undeclared voters who plan to vote in the 2024 GOP presidential primary." No other candidates, announced or unannounced, appear to have been invited to attend, making it an entire show focused on the ex-president who lost his re-election bid by 7,059,526 votes.
Former CNN and MSNBC journalist Keith Olbermann declared that CNN was "committing journalistic suicide."'
CNN slammed after announcing new Trump 'Presidential Town Hall'
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-town-hall-cnn/This should be a 'shit show'. (my words)
'CNN immediately came under fire Monday afternoon when the flailing news network announced it will host a "presidential town hall" next week featuring Donald Trump, the ex-president who is under criminal felony indictment, currently being sued in a civil rape and defamation case, and under multiple other likely criminal investigations including for his actions surrounding his January 6, 2021 insurrection and efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
The event," CNN revealed, "will feature the former president taking questions from New Hampshire Republicans and undeclared voters who plan to vote in the 2024 GOP presidential primary." No other candidates, announced or unannounced, appear to have been invited to attend, making it an entire show focused on the ex-president who lost his re-election bid by 7,059,526 votes.
Former CNN and MSNBC journalist Keith Olbermann declared that CNN was "committing journalistic suicide."'
May 1, 2023
We can thank Trump and his loosening of bank regulations for this (my words).
'JPMorgan Chase takes over First Republic after it’s seized by regulators'
'Regulators took possession of First Republic...on Monday, resulting in the third failure of an American bank since March, after a last-ditch effort to persuade rival lenders to keep the ailing bank afloat failed...JPMorgan Chase, already the largest U.S. bank by several measures, emerged as winner of the weekend auction for First Republic. It will get all of the ailing bank’s deposits and a “substantial majority of assets,” the New York-based bank said.
JPMorgan is getting about $92 billion in deposits in the deal, which includes the $30 billion that it and other large banks put into First Republic last month. The bank is taking on $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities as well.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation agreed to share losses on mortgages and commercial loans that JPMorgan assumed in the transaction, and also provided it with a $50 billion credit line.'
'Another One Bites The Dust...'
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/01/first-republic-bank-failure.htmlWe can thank Trump and his loosening of bank regulations for this (my words).
'JPMorgan Chase takes over First Republic after it’s seized by regulators'
'Regulators took possession of First Republic...on Monday, resulting in the third failure of an American bank since March, after a last-ditch effort to persuade rival lenders to keep the ailing bank afloat failed...JPMorgan Chase, already the largest U.S. bank by several measures, emerged as winner of the weekend auction for First Republic. It will get all of the ailing bank’s deposits and a “substantial majority of assets,” the New York-based bank said.
JPMorgan is getting about $92 billion in deposits in the deal, which includes the $30 billion that it and other large banks put into First Republic last month. The bank is taking on $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities as well.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation agreed to share losses on mortgages and commercial loans that JPMorgan assumed in the transaction, and also provided it with a $50 billion credit line.'
April 28, 2023
Heads up, people and calling on all financial wizards to offer opinions.
'“Why would the Republicans...who generally represent the interests of corporations and the rich above all else, risk crashing the stock market and economy where those very same wealthy people have their money invested?”...This is a story as old as capitalism. During the Republican Great Depression of the 1930s...some of America’s greatest fortunes were made or massively expanded...Joe Kennedy, who’d made a pile of money manipulating the stock market, bailed out as the market began its slide and even shorted the market, increasing his wealth. But once it had crashed, when everybody was broke, he bought stock with a vengeance. “Cash is king” was the phrase of the day, and Kennedy was well stocked in cash (he even bought a movie studio). By the end of the Depression, he was one of the richest men in the nation.
When Wall Street banks...crashed the American economy in 2007, home prices...collapsed by 21%. Over 10 million Americans lost their homes to banking predators like “Foreclosure King” Steve Mnuchin, and tens of millions of others were underwater..(On) March 16, 2020 — just after Trump declared a pandemic and lockdown — the Dow sustained the largest single-day crash in its entire history. For the investor class, Trump and his billionaire buddies, this was an even better opportunity than the Bush crash of 2007! during that one single terrible pandemic year of 2020...the world's 2,365 billionaires saw their wealth increase by a full 54%...Billionaire’s taxes have fallen by a full 79 percent since Reagan’s election in 1980, and a 2012 analysis found that as much as $32 trillion was safely squirreled away in tax-fraud offshore shelters...This is why Kevin McCarthy’s proposed legislation to raise the debt ceiling would strip $80 billion from the IRS: the morbidly rich tax cheats who own him (with the Supreme Court’s blessing in Citizens United) don’t want to get caught.'
But the average American can be forgiven for thinking that Republicans would be reluctant to crash the economy. Their lived experience is very different from that of Elon Musk (532% increase in wealth during the single year of 2020), Mark Zuckerberg (86% increase), or Jeff Bezos (65% increase).
Why the GOP May Actually Want a Second Great Depression
https://hartmannreport.com/p/why-the-gop-may-actually-want-a-second?utm_source=substack&utm_mediumHeads up, people and calling on all financial wizards to offer opinions.
'“Why would the Republicans...who generally represent the interests of corporations and the rich above all else, risk crashing the stock market and economy where those very same wealthy people have their money invested?”...This is a story as old as capitalism. During the Republican Great Depression of the 1930s...some of America’s greatest fortunes were made or massively expanded...Joe Kennedy, who’d made a pile of money manipulating the stock market, bailed out as the market began its slide and even shorted the market, increasing his wealth. But once it had crashed, when everybody was broke, he bought stock with a vengeance. “Cash is king” was the phrase of the day, and Kennedy was well stocked in cash (he even bought a movie studio). By the end of the Depression, he was one of the richest men in the nation.
When Wall Street banks...crashed the American economy in 2007, home prices...collapsed by 21%. Over 10 million Americans lost their homes to banking predators like “Foreclosure King” Steve Mnuchin, and tens of millions of others were underwater..(On) March 16, 2020 — just after Trump declared a pandemic and lockdown — the Dow sustained the largest single-day crash in its entire history. For the investor class, Trump and his billionaire buddies, this was an even better opportunity than the Bush crash of 2007! during that one single terrible pandemic year of 2020...the world's 2,365 billionaires saw their wealth increase by a full 54%...Billionaire’s taxes have fallen by a full 79 percent since Reagan’s election in 1980, and a 2012 analysis found that as much as $32 trillion was safely squirreled away in tax-fraud offshore shelters...This is why Kevin McCarthy’s proposed legislation to raise the debt ceiling would strip $80 billion from the IRS: the morbidly rich tax cheats who own him (with the Supreme Court’s blessing in Citizens United) don’t want to get caught.'
But the average American can be forgiven for thinking that Republicans would be reluctant to crash the economy. Their lived experience is very different from that of Elon Musk (532% increase in wealth during the single year of 2020), Mark Zuckerberg (86% increase), or Jeff Bezos (65% increase).
April 27, 2023
(Some history from Thom Hartmann) my words
'Kevin McCarthy is playing with fire, and he’s on very shaky constitutional grounds...He believes that he can hold hostage payments for goods bought and services already provided to the federal government...They’re doing this based on the 1917 Second Liberty Bond Act. The act gave the government the authority to issue Liberty Bonds to the public to help finance World War I, but put a cap on how much debt could be incurred...But there may be a way out...The Second Liberty Bond Act...only...narrowly tested for constitutionality before the Supreme Court..failed that test. In the opinion of many constitutional scholars, it’s patently unconstitutional and unenforceable.
The 14th Amendment to our Consitution... has a section that deals with the federal government paying its debts. It’s there, in part, because the Civil War had threatened the confidence of both the nation and the world around America’s ability to pay its bills...Section 4 of the 14th Amendment says: “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”
But what if the president were to call a press conference and say: “The Constitution requires America to pay her bills. I fully intend to do that.”..and simply restart fully paying America’s bills, ignoring the Liberty Bond Act and the debt ceiling, Republicans will almost certainly sue him before the Supreme Court...and under normal and rational circumstances, the Court would do what it did in 1935 and order the bills paid, citing the 14th Amendment’s fourth section as the basis for the decision. These are not, however, normal and rational times, and this is not a normal and rational court. Clarence Thomas and Brett “Beerbong” Kavanaugh have both publicly declared a desire for revenge against Democrats, and Alito and Gorsuch are both visibly pissed off about their integrity being questioned...Still, I believe it’s unlikely the Court would side with Congressional Republicans and force America into default (a similar lawsuit was tossed out in 2016, but for lack of standing)...This has the potential to get wild. Get some popcorn, but also buckle up tight…
'Kevin McCarthy Wants a "Debt Ceiling Depression" - Will SCOTUS Give It To Him?'
https://hartmannreport.com/p/kevin-mccarthy-wants-a-debt-ceiling?utm_source=substack&utm_medium(Some history from Thom Hartmann) my words
'Kevin McCarthy is playing with fire, and he’s on very shaky constitutional grounds...He believes that he can hold hostage payments for goods bought and services already provided to the federal government...They’re doing this based on the 1917 Second Liberty Bond Act. The act gave the government the authority to issue Liberty Bonds to the public to help finance World War I, but put a cap on how much debt could be incurred...But there may be a way out...The Second Liberty Bond Act...only...narrowly tested for constitutionality before the Supreme Court..failed that test. In the opinion of many constitutional scholars, it’s patently unconstitutional and unenforceable.
The 14th Amendment to our Consitution... has a section that deals with the federal government paying its debts. It’s there, in part, because the Civil War had threatened the confidence of both the nation and the world around America’s ability to pay its bills...Section 4 of the 14th Amendment says: “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”
But what if the president were to call a press conference and say: “The Constitution requires America to pay her bills. I fully intend to do that.”..and simply restart fully paying America’s bills, ignoring the Liberty Bond Act and the debt ceiling, Republicans will almost certainly sue him before the Supreme Court...and under normal and rational circumstances, the Court would do what it did in 1935 and order the bills paid, citing the 14th Amendment’s fourth section as the basis for the decision. These are not, however, normal and rational times, and this is not a normal and rational court. Clarence Thomas and Brett “Beerbong” Kavanaugh have both publicly declared a desire for revenge against Democrats, and Alito and Gorsuch are both visibly pissed off about their integrity being questioned...Still, I believe it’s unlikely the Court would side with Congressional Republicans and force America into default (a similar lawsuit was tossed out in 2016, but for lack of standing)...This has the potential to get wild. Get some popcorn, but also buckle up tight…
April 27, 2023
'How worried should we be if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted?'
Wendy Edelberg and Louise Sheiner Monday, April 24, 2023
HOW WOULD A BINDING DEBT LIMIT AFFECT THE ECONOMY?
'... In a worst-case scenario, at some point Treasury would be forced to delay a payment of interest or principal on U.S. debt. Such an outright default on Treasury securities would very likely result in severe disruption to the Treasury securities market with acute spillovers to other financial markets and to the cost and availability of credit to households and businesses.'
ESTIMATES OF THE EFFECTS OF A BINDING DEBT LIMIT ON THE U.S. ECONOMY
Evidence from macroeconomic models:
'In October 2013, the Federal Reserve simulated the effects of a binding debt ceiling that lasted one month—from mid-October to mid-November 2013—during which time Treasury would continue to make all interest payments. The Fed economists estimated that such an impasse would lead to an 80 basis point increase in 10-year Treasury yields, a 30 percent decline in stock prices, a 10 percent drop in the value of the dollar, and a hit to household and business confidence, with these effects waning over a two-year period. According to their analysis, this deterioration in financial conditions would result in a mild two-quarter recession, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate of 1.25 percentage points in the first year after the crisis and 1.7 percentage points in the second. Such an increase in the unemployment rate today would mean the loss of about 2 million jobs in 2023 and 2.8 million jobs in 2024.
Macroeconomic Advisers conducted a similar exercise in 2013. It assessed the economic costs of two scenarios—one in which the impasse lasted just a short time and another in which it persisted for two months. Even in the scenario in which the impasse was resolved quickly, the economic consequences were substantial—a mild recession and a loss of 2.5 million jobs that returned only very slowly. For the two-month impasse, which included a deep cut to federal spending in one quarter, offset by a surge in spending in the next quarter, the effects were larger and longer lasting. In the analysis, such a scenario would lead to the near-term loss of up to 3.1 million jobs. Even two years after the crisis, there would be 2.5 million fewer jobs than there otherwise would have been....In 2021, when failure to raise the debt ceiling once again threatened Treasury’s ability to pay its obligations, Moody’s Analytics concluded that the costs to the U.S. economy of allowing the debt limit to bind then would be severe. In Moody’s simulation, if the impasse lasted several months in the fall of 2021, employment would decline by 5 million and real GDP would decline almost 4 percent in the near term before recovering over the next few quarters.'
CONCLUSION
'While greatly uncertain, the effects of allowing the debt limit to bind could be quite severe, even assuming that principal and interest payments continue to be made. If instead Treasury fails to fully make all principal and interest payments—because of political or legal constraints, unexpected cash shortfalls, or a failed auction of new Treasury securities—the consequences would be even more dire...The workarounds that have been proposed—the platinum coin, increasing borrowing despite the debt limit, prioritizing payments—either bring significant legal uncertainty or are not sustainable solutions. These unlikely workarounds do not avoid the chaos that is inherent to the debt ceiling binding. The only effective solution is for Congress to increase the debt ceiling without delay or, better yet, abolish it.'
I highly recommend you read the entire article (my words).
An article that explains the debt ceiling issue and consequences..It's not a pretty picture, people
https://www.brookings.edu/2023/04/24/how-worried-should-we-be-if-the-debt-ceiling-isnt-lifted/'How worried should we be if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted?'
Wendy Edelberg and Louise Sheiner Monday, April 24, 2023
HOW WOULD A BINDING DEBT LIMIT AFFECT THE ECONOMY?
'... In a worst-case scenario, at some point Treasury would be forced to delay a payment of interest or principal on U.S. debt. Such an outright default on Treasury securities would very likely result in severe disruption to the Treasury securities market with acute spillovers to other financial markets and to the cost and availability of credit to households and businesses.'
ESTIMATES OF THE EFFECTS OF A BINDING DEBT LIMIT ON THE U.S. ECONOMY
Evidence from macroeconomic models:
'In October 2013, the Federal Reserve simulated the effects of a binding debt ceiling that lasted one month—from mid-October to mid-November 2013—during which time Treasury would continue to make all interest payments. The Fed economists estimated that such an impasse would lead to an 80 basis point increase in 10-year Treasury yields, a 30 percent decline in stock prices, a 10 percent drop in the value of the dollar, and a hit to household and business confidence, with these effects waning over a two-year period. According to their analysis, this deterioration in financial conditions would result in a mild two-quarter recession, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate of 1.25 percentage points in the first year after the crisis and 1.7 percentage points in the second. Such an increase in the unemployment rate today would mean the loss of about 2 million jobs in 2023 and 2.8 million jobs in 2024.
Macroeconomic Advisers conducted a similar exercise in 2013. It assessed the economic costs of two scenarios—one in which the impasse lasted just a short time and another in which it persisted for two months. Even in the scenario in which the impasse was resolved quickly, the economic consequences were substantial—a mild recession and a loss of 2.5 million jobs that returned only very slowly. For the two-month impasse, which included a deep cut to federal spending in one quarter, offset by a surge in spending in the next quarter, the effects were larger and longer lasting. In the analysis, such a scenario would lead to the near-term loss of up to 3.1 million jobs. Even two years after the crisis, there would be 2.5 million fewer jobs than there otherwise would have been....In 2021, when failure to raise the debt ceiling once again threatened Treasury’s ability to pay its obligations, Moody’s Analytics concluded that the costs to the U.S. economy of allowing the debt limit to bind then would be severe. In Moody’s simulation, if the impasse lasted several months in the fall of 2021, employment would decline by 5 million and real GDP would decline almost 4 percent in the near term before recovering over the next few quarters.'
CONCLUSION
'While greatly uncertain, the effects of allowing the debt limit to bind could be quite severe, even assuming that principal and interest payments continue to be made. If instead Treasury fails to fully make all principal and interest payments—because of political or legal constraints, unexpected cash shortfalls, or a failed auction of new Treasury securities—the consequences would be even more dire...The workarounds that have been proposed—the platinum coin, increasing borrowing despite the debt limit, prioritizing payments—either bring significant legal uncertainty or are not sustainable solutions. These unlikely workarounds do not avoid the chaos that is inherent to the debt ceiling binding. The only effective solution is for Congress to increase the debt ceiling without delay or, better yet, abolish it.'
I highly recommend you read the entire article (my words).
April 26, 2023
And other good stuff...
John Flannery (you'll recognize him from Ari's show) on Biden's announcement to run again...
And other good stuff...
April 26, 2023
And other good stuff...
John Flannery (you'll recognize him from Ari's show) on Biden's announcement to run again...
And other good stuff...
April 24, 2023
I'm curious if anyone else has joined. I'm hoping it will replace my twitter account (kinda, sorta). I subscribe to Joyce Vance's Civil Discourse (that's free, too.)
'As of April 11, 2023, Notes is available to all writers and readers on Substack. Visit Notes.'
'Our goal is to foster conversations that inspire, enlighten, and entertain, while giving writers a powerful growth channel as these interactions find new audiences...Imagine Kareem Abdul-Jabbar leaving a comment on Margaret Atwood’s note about trends in science fiction, or Alison Roman sharing a quote from an amazing recipe developed by a little-known food writer who then gets a flood of subscriptions. Think of your favorite Substack economists nerding out in a deep thread about the latest jobs report, or Joe Posnanski and Molly Knight going back and forth about Major League Baseball’s Opening Day.'
Today I joined Substack 'Notes'. It was free...
https://on.substack.com/p/introducing-notesI'm curious if anyone else has joined. I'm hoping it will replace my twitter account (kinda, sorta). I subscribe to Joyce Vance's Civil Discourse (that's free, too.)
'As of April 11, 2023, Notes is available to all writers and readers on Substack. Visit Notes.'
'Our goal is to foster conversations that inspire, enlighten, and entertain, while giving writers a powerful growth channel as these interactions find new audiences...Imagine Kareem Abdul-Jabbar leaving a comment on Margaret Atwood’s note about trends in science fiction, or Alison Roman sharing a quote from an amazing recipe developed by a little-known food writer who then gets a flood of subscriptions. Think of your favorite Substack economists nerding out in a deep thread about the latest jobs report, or Joe Posnanski and Molly Knight going back and forth about Major League Baseball’s Opening Day.'
Profile Information
Name: JoGender: Female
Hometown: Northeast
Home country: United States
Member since: Sat Jun 15, 2019, 11:56 PM
Number of posts: 14,408
