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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 4,982

Journal Archives

Biden's States Right Defense in 2019

Biden gave a States Rights argument to try to defend himself YESTERDAY.

For god's sake it's 2019.

Aren't we, as Democrats, saying a States Rights argument to limit a woman's reproductive rights is WRONG?
As state after state chips away at Roe versus Wade, as states close clinic after clinic, we Democrats have said ENOUGH. States don't have the right to do this.

Are we all supposed to become hypocritical now to defend Biden?

10 days for Polls to Reflect the New Reality

It will take about a week for pre-debate polling to clear out of the system.

In 10-14 days polls will start to show if the first debates have influenced primary voters.

Until those post-debate polls are conducted, we'll be hearing a lot of opinions about which campaigns were impacted and why, but those opinions won't be based on any scientific surveys.

How does one participate in the MorningConsult Poll?

MorningConsult is a popular poll often cited here on DU; its site says it interviews over 16,000 registered voters every week on the state of the Democratic primaries.

Recently when I asked how it operated, I was told it's a form of online poll, but is more sophisticated than typical online click bait polls.
But because of this, I was told (and I think I have this part correct) that it isn't a truly random poll.

The results of this poll seem to be almost unchanging from week to week, so I wondered exactly how one is selected to participate in it.
I forgot to ask that as a follow up question before, so let me ask it now:

How are the 16,000 people interviewed each week for the MorningConsult Poll selected?

Biden to debate for first time as front-runner

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s aides are preparing him to do something that he’s never done before in his decades of public service: walk onto a debate stage as the party’s front-runner for the presidential nomination.
Biden has run for president twice before, both times as a huge underdog. Thursday night will mark the first time he takes center stage with a massive target on his back and 19 candidates itching to take him on.

In debate preparation sessions, Biden’s aides have focused on two potential vulnerabilities — his propensity for long-windedness, which can lead to gaffes, and how to handle the pack of contenders that will be looking to cut him down or elevate their own candidacies through a viral exchange with the front-runner.
Biden’s rivals, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who will be standing next to him on stage, are already sharpening their attacks ahead of the debate, which marks the first major inflection point in the race to the nomination.
“The sharks smell blood in the water,” said one Democratic strategist.

The former vice president will enter the debate with a healthy lead over the rest of the Democratic field, both nationally and in the early-voting states.

But public opinion surveys also indicate that Biden’s polling strength may be weaker than it appears, with more than three-quarters of likely primary voters saying they’re still open to changing their minds.


Biden is an excellent debater, underestimate his skills at your own peril.

No one in tonight's or yesterday's debate has Biden's vast experience in high stakes political debates.

This isn't Biden's first rodeo.

Biden: the best debater in 2008

In past debates, Biden has knocked it out of the park. But this time he’s the central target on a crowded stage and he’s been coached to avoid conflict.

Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.), the former chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus and Biden’s campaign co-chairman, said Biden has a knack for performing well when the stakes are highest.

“He usually rises to the occasion,” said Richmond. “I think it’s the way he connects. When he talks, people get the feeling that he understands. I think that’s the big appeal — that most families believe he knows what they’re going through.”
Charm, warmth and humor are among the weapons Biden deploys to throw his opponents off-guard. When asked by moderator Brian Williams in a 2007 debate if he could reassure voters that he’d have the discipline he’d need on the world stage — the question was prefaced with a reference to his verbosity and reputation as “a gaffe machine” — Biden won the moment with a one-word answer.
“Yes,” Biden said plainly before stopping speaking, leading to a roomful of laughter.

He can seamlessly transition from folksy “Uncle Joe” from Scranton, Pa., to a more pugilistic version of himself when attempting to correct the record. Former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a former presidential contender who took part in more than a half-dozen forums with the then-Delaware senator in 2007, said Biden’s best asset is his ability to come across as reassuring and genuine.
“He connected with the TV and the audience in the debates. He was very good at telling stories. The way to connect with voters is to tell stories — not to have a 10-point plan. He was very good at that,” said Richardson, who has not backed any candidate in the 2020 primary. “I believe he will win the first debate.”

Richardson described Biden as “the best debater” in the 2008 Democratic field — which included Obama, Clinton and polished trial attorney John Edwards.


People are setting a high bar for Biden tonight.

Master Debater Biden takes the stage tonight

Joe Biden takes stage with more debate experience than his opponents
By Arlette Saenz, CNN

Joe Biden is no stranger to the presidential debate stage, but tonight marks the first time he steps foot on that stage as a frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

Biden, who watched last night's debate in Delaware, will appear on stage with more presidential-level debating experience than his Democratic opponents. His first presidential debates came in the 1988 campaign, but that race also brought a debate moment which helped dash his presidential hopes when Biden used similar language in his closing remarks as British politician Neil Kinnock.
The Delaware Democrat returned to the presidential debate arena for the 2008 campaign when he debated candidates like then-Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. During a 2007 Democratic debate, he also unleashed a memorable zinger against Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani.
"There's only three things he mentions in a sentence -- a noun and a verb and 9/11," Biden said to laughter. "I mean there's nothing else. There's nothing else."

But tonight marks Biden's first debate in seven years. In 2012, Biden sparred with Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan. Biden's strong performance, which included several instances of calling out Ryan's talking points as "malarkey," quelled some Democrats' concerns after President Barack Obama's lackluster first debate against Mitt Romney one week prior.

Biden also delivered a memorable debate performance in 2008 when he faced off against GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, who approached her Democratic opponent at the onset with the question, "Can I call you Joe?"
Biden grew emotional as he talked about the loss of his wife and young daughter more than 30 years prior.
"The notion that somehow, because I'm a man, that I don't know what it's like to raise two kids alone, I don't know what it's like to have a child that you're not sure is going to make it. I understand," Biden said choking up.

As he readies to take center stage at the first Democratic primary debate in Miami, the former vice president hunkered down with advisers in Delaware this week for "comprehensive" debate prep, which has included holding mock debates, a source familiar with his preparations said. For weeks, Biden has blocked off time for debate prep on his schedule while on and off the campaign trail, according to sources familiar with his preparations, reading through briefing books and participating in question and answer sessions.


Good luck to all the candidates on stage tonight.

My advice to them is the same as I gave for yesterday's debate: be energetic, be engaged, be Democrats!

Biden drops to +6 in latest Economist Poll

Economist/YouGov: Wednesday June 26
Biden +6 lead, down from +10 last week

Biden..... 25
Warren... 19
Sanders.. 15
Harris...…. 7
Buttigieg.. 6
O'Rourke.. 3

Economist/YouGov: Thursday June 20
Biden +10

Biden..... 26
Warren... 16
Sanders.. 12
Harris...…. 7
Buttigieg.. 9
O'Rourke.. 3


Warren's strong momentum continues.

Warren Joins Protest Outside Child Detention Facility in Florida

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, one of the frontrunners for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, joined a protest in front of a migrant detention center Wednesday morning—hours before she was expected to join nine other members of her party for the first primary debate. "There are a lot of different ways that we get in the fight," Warren said to supporters on social media. "And one of them is that you show up."

Warren's appearance at the Homestead Detention Center was prompted by a question during a town hall the night before from an audience member who asked the Massachusetts senator if she would join a protest at the facility. Homestead holds the nation's largest child migrant population.

The senator said she would and brought supporters and the media with her on the visit

"We have to shut down that facility and shut it down now," Warren told the town hall to applause.

Warren stood on a ladder to ensure she was seen above a fence keeping most of the children out of view.
In comments to the crowd, Warren said the detention centers were "a stain on our country."


Warren in the spotlight for 1st debate

Warren in the spotlight as Democrats gather for 1st debate

Elizabeth Warren will take center stage at the debate’s opening night. The Massachusetts senator’s constant stream of policy proposals has helped her campaign gain ground, and she’s the sole top-tier candidate who will appear at the Wednesday debate. Widely viewed as a talented debater, Warren is well positioned to showcase her strengths, strategists say.

“I don’t think anyone else on that night has her level of skill and her level of experience in this format,” said Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist. “I think she should look at this as an opportunity to really shine and come out of the first night as the one that is dominating the conversation.”

Yet Warren could still face challenges. The other candidates on stage Wednesday aren’t as well known and could use the moment to take aggressive stances against Warren in an effort to find a breakout moment.

“She’s liable to have a target on her back and a lot of people potentially coming after her on that stage,” said Charles Chamberlain, the chairman of the progressive political action committee Democracy for America. “But on the other hand, that will let people see how she handles attacks and can fend them off.”


I do not think our candidates will "take aggressive stances" against each other, to the media's dismay.

They will take the opportunity to present their vision and their qualifications for the office of president.

I urge them all to be energetic, be engaged, be Democrats.

A Question about the MorningConsult Poll

MorningConsult says their latest results are based on 16,188 interviews with registered voters collected over the last week.

My question is, do they call the same registered voters over and over?

Or are the interviewed registered voters selected randomly each week?

I ask because 538 only gives them a B- rating, despite MorningConsult interviewing more voters each week than most polls.
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