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bluewater

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Member since: Fri Jun 7, 2019, 02:43 PM
Number of posts: 4,982

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YouGov Poll: Democratic Candidates Considered

The Economist/YouGov Poll
August 10 - 13, 2019 - 1500 US Adult citizens

Number of respondents 1500
1127 (Registered voters)
Margin of error ± 2.6% (adjusted for weighting)
± 3% (Registered voters)

19. Democratic candidates considered
Which candidate or candidates are you considering voting for in the Democratic Presidential primary or caucus in your state in 2020? (Select all that apply)
Asked of those who say they will vote in the Democratic Presidential primary or caucus in 2020


Elizabeth Warren 50%

Joe Biden 47%

Kamala Harris 39%

Bernie Sanders 38%

Pete Buttigieg 31%

Cory Booker 23%

Beto O’Rourke 21%

Julian Castro 14%

Amy Klobuchar 12%

Andrew Yang 12%

Kirsten Gillibrand 9%

Tulsi Gabbard 8%

Tom Steyer 5%

Steve Bullock 4%

Marianne Williamson 4%

Steve Bullock 4%

Jay Inslee 4%

https://today.yougov.com/topics/economist/survey-results

The usual disclaimer: This poll is more than 6 months from the start of actual voting. The results of any single poll should not be overemphasized.

Warren was THE candidate that the most respondents considered voting for.

Another indication of her growing support across the Democratic base.


Cory Booker and Beto O'Rourke came in a very strong 6th and 7th, respectively. Perhaps out performing the conventional wisdom?

Lot's of food for thought for potential General Election ticket pairings in these results, perhaps?

YouGov Poll: Disappointed if Democratic Nominee

The Economist/YouGov Poll
August 10 - 13, 2019 - 1500 US Adult citizens

Number of respondents 1500
1127 (Registered voters)
Margin of error ± 2.6% (adjusted for weighting)
± 3% (Registered voters)


21. Disappointed if Democratic nominee
Are there any presidential candidates that you would be disappointed if they became the Democratic nominee?

Joe Biden 22%

Bernie Sanders 20%

Tulsi Gabbard 20%

Tom Steyer 18%

Amy Klobuchar 14%

Kamala Harris 14%

Andrew Yang 13%

Cory Booker 13%

Beto O’Rourke 12%

Julian Castro 12%

Pete Buttigieg 11%

Elizabeth Warren 9%


Out of the 12 candidates likely to qualify for the September 12th Debate:

Biden disappointed the MOST respondents if he is the eventual nominee, 22%

Warren disappointed the LEAST respondents if she is the eventual nominee, 9%


https://today.yougov.com/topics/economist/survey-results

The usual disclaimer: This poll is more than 6 months from the start of actual voting. The results of any single poll should not be overemphasized.

Actually, Warren would disappoint the LEAST respondents out of ALL the 24 Democratic candidates in the poll.


That's starting to sound like she might just be the consensus candidate that can bring all factions of the Democratic base together.

538 CORN POLL LIE EXPOSED !!!!1!1!!!

Previously 538 posted:

0 percent

At the Iowa State Fair, they administer a decidedly nonscientific poll whereby fair goers drop a corn kernel into a jar corresponding to their preferred presidential candidate. In this decidedly nonscientific poll, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio registered 0 percent. For whatever it’s worth, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg led the way with 24, 16 and 16 percent of the corn, respectively.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/significant-digits-for-wednesday-aug-14-2019/

BUT IT'S ALL A LIE!!!!

Here is the PHOTOGRAPHIC PROOF:



https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/c30585d2d450b6bc4747000531483ac9?width=1024

Clearly DeBlasio HAS KERNELS in his JAR.

Oh, sure, being statisticians, 538 will probably try to cover this up claiming it's all due to some sort of STATITISICAL ROUNDING thing. Right. Sure. Like WE are all too DUMB to handle decimal fractions!
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16 HarrisX Polls released for August... so far.

16 HarrisX Polls conducted at least in part in August have been released so far this month.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

Seriously. Talk about Poll fatigue.

Hmmmm. Is such frequent polling by an online poll being conducted to push a desired narrative?



0%

0 percent

At the Iowa State Fair, they administer a decidedly nonscientific poll whereby fairgoers drop a corn kernel into a jar corresponding to their preferred presidential candidate. In this decidedly nonscientific poll, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio registered 0 percent. For whatever it’s worth, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg led the way with 24, 16 and 16 percent of the corn, respectively.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/significant-digits-for-wednesday-aug-14-2019/

The Republicans are scum, that includes Mark Sanford

Former Governor and Congressman Mark Sanford is mulling a challenge to President Trump next year for the Republican nomination.

But he also says that in a potential matchup between former Vice President Joe Biden and Trump, he’d pick Trump.

https://www.msnbc.com/hardball/watch/possible-trump-challenger-mark-sanford-would-vote-for-trump-over-biden-65958981923

Don't believe anyone that thinks Trump is some sort of anomaly in the Republican party.

Republican support for Trump rises after racially charged tweets: Reuters/Ipsos poll

The national survey, conducted on Monday and Tuesday after Trump told the lawmakers they should “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came,” showed his net approval among members of his Republican Party rose by 5 percentage points to 72%, compared with a similar poll that ran last week.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-poll/republican-support-for-trump-rises-after-racially-charged-tweets-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1UB2UD

Dems Are Starting to Freak Out That Their 2020 Field Isn't Shrinking

The networks are cool with it. But voters and top officials are concerned that the upcoming debates may end up being as messy as the last.

There will be no great winnowing. At least not yet.

After four nights of debates featuring more than 20 Democratic presidential candidates, the televised fall contests were supposed to be the moment where the party’s presidential field would be cut down to size.

But instead of entering the getting-serious phase of the race for the nomination, the Democratic National Committee, television networks and candidates themselves are bracing for a long haul—starting with the strong likelihood that enough candidates will qualify to require the debates to be split up again. Already nine candidates have secured spots for the Sept. 12-13 forum in Houston, and several others appear poised to qualify. At most, 10 candidates are expected to appear onstage together and a spokesperson for the DNC did not clarify how the group would be divided over two nights if more than 10 qualify. A recent DNC memo also granted the campaigns more time to qualify for the subsequent October contest, meaning that even more could potentially participate in the debates deeper into the fall.

Party officials and some campaign veterans insist that a crowded debate stage (or even two) isn’t an altogether bad thing. Many point out that voter engagement picks up much later in the fall, and argue that the eventual nominee will emerge battle-tested from a prolonged nomination process. At a minimum, party leadership will avoid the criticism that they got in 2016, when it was perceived that they tried to smooth things out for Hillary Clinton.

But there is also growing anecdotal evidence that Democratic primary voters are increasingly exhausted with the large field. And privately, some campaigns have grown eager to have the top-tier candidates onstage alone with each other, so as to showcase their direct policy contrasts.

The DNC seemed to be eager for that too. Following the first two debates, the committee raised the threshold for candidates to qualify, requiring any candidate to hit 2 percent in four polls, and have at least 130,000 unique donors, a measure intended to weed out the less serious contenders. But that criteria has had a perverse side-effect, insiders fear, by creating incentive structures for candidates that are largely unhelpful.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/2020-election-democrats-are-starting-to-freak-out-that-their-field-isnt-shrinking

One Month out from the September 12th Debate...

And it's August.

My predictions for the next 4 weeks:

1. Trump will say something racist.

2. HarrisX polling will release 37 online poll results.
( check out this link to get that joke: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/ )

3. Trump will DO something racist.

4. All the candidates will be working on their Iowa and New Hampshire ground games.

5. Trump will invite a racist to the White House.

6. All the candidates will be issuing policy statements that no one pays much attention to because it's August and it's hot.

7. DU posters will start OP's on all of the 37 HarrisX online polls released.

8. A racist will say something supporting tRump.

9. Everyone will be hoping the September 12th debate is not split over two nights!

Iowa corn poll may signal trouble for Joe Biden.

'Ear this, America: A uniquely unscientific poll of Iowa voters suggests Joe Biden is struggling to maintain his front-runner status in the Democratic presidential primary race.

Just 24% of Iowa State Fair goers “voted” for Biden by dropping a kernel of corn in his jar in a fair display designed to predict the winner of the nominating contest.

The vice president out-husked his closest rival, Pete Buttigieg, who drew 16% in the Cast Your Kernel contest. Sen. Elizabeth Warren was right behind with 15% and Sen. Kamala Harris took 11%.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1160907695404322816

That margin reflects a closer contest than most national polls, and shows that the vice president may be in for a rocky start when the voting starts with the Iowa caucuses next February.

Of course, you butter be ready for plenty of ups and downs before that frosty night.

Hillary Clinton won the 2016 Kernel contest in a landslide, but barely eked out a win against upstart Bernie Sanders in the actual caucus. Sanders is trailing badly this time with just 9%.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-iowa-corn-poll-joe-biden-20190812-vunsn5oxonhxjjjjfvg5u2aswm-story.html

Harris says Trump is waging a 'campaign of terror' against minority communities

Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., accused the Trump administration of waging a "campaign of terror" against minority communities in America, pointing specifically to the recent Mississippi food processing plant raids that picked up 680 suspected undocumented workers.

Noting that the raids last week arrested predominately Latino workers, the Democratic presidential hopeful said she believes Hispanics feel targeted in America. In an exclusive interview with "Meet the Press," Harris also questioned why the raids occurred so close to last weekend's mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, the largest targeted attack on Latinos in modern American history.

"We must point out and never condone anyone who uses their power in a way that fans it. But the reality is that these are forms of hate that are not new to our country, which have in the history of our country taken lethal proportion, and, still today, take on lethal proportion," she said.

"This administration has directed DHS to conduct these raids as part of what I believe is this administration's campaign of terror, which is to make whole populations of people afraid to go to work," Harris said. "Children are afraid to go to school for fear that when they come home, their parents won’t be there.”

The raids hit several work sites in Mississippi, with immigration officials hailing it as the "largest single-state enforcement action in [the] nation's history."
Community leaders and immigration advocates have criticized the administration's handling of the raid, pointing to the effects it will have on children whose parents were apprehended and to lack of criminal actions against the employers specifically.

When asked about the decision to hold the raid shortly after the El Paso shooting, where the shooter told police he was targeting ‘Mexicans,’ acting Secretary of Homeland Security Kevin McAleenan told "Meet the Press" Sunday that the timing was “unfortunate.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/harris-says-trump-waging-campaign-terror-against-minority-communities-n1041171
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